The Research Of The Consumers' Expectation Influences The Formation Of Commercial Houses' Price

At present, commercial houses are the main object of resident buyers and its price has drawn attention from all the people. Since 2003, with rapid development of real estate industry, rapid growth of investment and great increase of price, housing price-income ratio is much higher than international standard, especially in developed city, house price has been a social problem. Therefore, the influencing factors of the prices of commercial houses have become an important part of the study of many scholars. On the basis of predecessors, this thesis preliminarily explores the relationship between the formation of housing prices and consumers'expectation by using the method of normative analysis and empirical analysis. At last, this thesis draws a conclusion that consumers'expectation has a great influence on the formation of housing price at the premise of constant supply of commercial houses.The study is composed of three parts:First, this thesis analyzes the action mechanism that consumers'expectation influences housing prices. Second, at the premise of analyzing the influencing factors of housing demand and introducing housing ownership cost concept, this thesis determines explanatory variables and builds model. Third, this thesis classifies data of Shenzhen during the period of 2006-2010 into common commercial houses and uncommon commercial houses and makes empirical analysis respectively.On the basis of the expectation theory and the housing ownership cost theory, this thesis builds relation model of consumers'expectation and prices of commercial houses by using the method of normative analysis and empirical analysis. Afterwards, this thesis makes model regression analysis and inspection by extensively collecting Shenzhen macroeconomic data and the market data of commercial houses.There are two innovations in the research. On the one hand, this thesis indirectly introduces consumers' expectation variable into the model which is based on the classical housing demand model. On the other hand, this thesis classifies the data about Shenzhen during the period of 2006-2010 into common commercial houses and uncommon commercial houses and makes empirical analysis respectively so that we can more clearly observe how much consumers'expectation influence them.