Prediction Based On The Needs Of Large-scale Earthquake Emergency Relief Supplies Gray Modeling Techniques

After a large-scale earthquake disaster, to support disaster relief actions carried outeffectively, the right amount of emergency relief supplies should be delivered to thedisaster area at the right time. At the same time, because of limited rescue time, qualityand quantity and the information of the disaster area, after a massive earthquake disaster,if the disaster relief unit can change passive to active, in a short time, collectinformation, forecast emergency demand of the disaster area, the head can makescientific and effective allocation of emergency relief supplies, and timely and efficientdistribution of relief supplies as far as possible, thus avoiding even the appearance ofthe imbalance of the supply and demand. Take the life, medical, professional rescueequipments emergency rescue supplies demand as example, a large-scale earthquakeemergency relief supplies demand forecasting model based on the grey modeling isbuilt.This paper will propose a relief distribution system decomposed into five parts.The first part mainly analyses the domestic and international research status andintroduces research methods and technical route of this paper based on reading themassive literature of earthquake emergency relief demand forecasting. The second partis mainly about the massive earthquake emergency relief demand theories.The thirdpart constructs drug-class emergency relief demand forecasting model based onVERHULST and a lifestyle emergency relief demand forecasting model based onMetabolic GM (1,1) and a professional rescue equipments emergency relief demandforecasting model based on Grey Relational Analysis. Numerical studies with real dataof Yvshu in Qinghai province are conducted, according to the results of examples, themethods put forward is feasible in practical application. The fourth part puts forwardsome suggestions on large-scale earthquake disaster emergency relief management.Finally, the conclusions are given, and this part also discusses the shortcomings of theresearch, and analyzes the research prospects.