The Influence Of The Crude Oil Future Speculation To International Oil Price

Since2002the crude oil prices rise rapidly and reach$147a barrel in July2008,then rapid fall to around$40in just a few months. It is very difficult to give areasonable explanation just rely on traditional influence factors such as supply anddemand as well as the dollar, more and more people begin to taking aim at crude oilfutures market. They think that plenty capital enter into the crude oil futures market tospeculation which led to the oil price bubble, but whether the speculation caninfluence the oil price has controversial and lack of empirical analysis. This paper isto regard this as the starting point to solve the following problems: First, whether thespeculation has significant influence on the oil price. Second, how deep does thespeculation influence on oil price in short-term, and which factor is dominant in along time. Third, how deep the traditional factors and speculation affect the crude oilprice. Fourth, how the oil price will be changed under the influence of multiplefactors.We use the latest data, covariance analysis, impulse response analysis and variancedecomposition, co integration and VEC model and BP neural network to solve aboveproblems. Finally we get the following conclusion: The speculation has significanteffect on oil price in the short term, the impulse of the speculation to oil price canmake it rise15dollars, and the speculation’s contribution to oil price can reach60percent. The supply, demand and the dollar is still dominant during the several factorsin the long term; the contribution of supply and demand is40percent, the dollar isabout20percent, the speculation is5percent. Another, we get that the oil price andthe influence have a long-term stable co-integration relationship throughco-integration analysis, and VEC model accord with reverse correction mechanism,the speculation can predict oil price fluctuation effectively in short term if we take itinto consideration. Through correlation analysis, comparative analysis and using chartanalysis, we think that the commodity index funds can promote oil price in the longrun; but the fluctuations of the oil is mainly due to no-commercial position, becausethey can chase high and run after low. The speculative capital expands unceasingly,they have the ability to influence crude oil price.The high oil prices increased global inflation and caused serious influence to theglobal economy. China’s oil external dependence has more than50percent, the sharpfluctuation of the oil price can influence our development seriously, and we put forward reasonable suggestions based on the related research to the relevantdepartments: The futures exchange should strengthen the supervision of thenon-commercial position; they can increase margin to limit speculation appropriately.We should promote the crude oil futures listed process, the oil company also shouldseize the opportunity to expand business inventory and increase the developmentinvestment. Finally, we should improve the domestic refined oil pricing mechanismconstantly.