| The curtain has dropped by 2010, economic situation are already clear. From the perspective of China's macroeconomic regulation and control, almost all of the financial control of the outcome reflected in the control of money supply, and the regulation of money supply, Mainly reflected in economic growth and price index effects of these two aspects. Money supply and bank credit as China's monetary policy main intermediary goal is always all point of contention, In the global financial crisis. Countries in the world in order to stimulate their economy adopted a series of expansionary monetary policy, in order to economic development have relatively positive role, Including relatively loose credit policy. Of course, our country also made corresponding credit policy. The central bank figures showed, In January 2009, new banks credit surged to 1.62 trillion Yuan. By 2010, size of credit remains high operation, November new use 10.39 trillion Yuan. How to treat the loan so the amount of days? The amount of days Will the amount of credit an impact on prices? The answer is yes! November 2010 the CPI rose to 5.1%, inflation has caused the masses appeared uneasy. Then the credit will be affected long after the change in price, as well as their impact and to what extent? This paper will research question.This article from the relationship between credit and prices, by 2009 credit a quantity to whether can generate large impact on prices as the breakthrough point, according to economic theory and measurement analysis method, co-integration and correction model and impulse response. Quantitative analysis on prices caused by the amount of credit impact and effect of hysteresis.The article concludes is: (1) Credit and gross domestic product and price level exist equilibrium relationship, The credit for the price of influence is not current generated, the lag of about half a year or more may sometimes requires a longer reaction time; (2) consistent with the loans, also has a lag effect, the impact on prices after the show in a quarter; (3) non-equilibrium part of the credit price changes is an important factor; (4)Credit wobbles impact on prices accumulation period for a year and a half, price fluctuations for credit wobbles impact on 6th period reach the peak, after reduced gradually, and eventually disappears. |
