The Research About Influence On Oil Price Brought By Oil Future Speculation

In modern time, oil is a kind of strategic energy for each country. The formation of oilprice is different from other goods because of its scarcity. OPEC produces more thanone third of global oil. OPEC has been the price maker since 1960s and the pricefluctuation has been according to its oil supply. Non-OPEC also plays an importantrole in the oil price by its large amounts of oil production. The oil price has beencontinuously surging and fluctuating as well for recent years. The supply and demandof oil, the variance of dollar, regional politics, weather factors and speculation in oilfutures are part of origin. However, global speculation of oil futures becomes a keyfactor. The formation system of oil price has a tendency to basis on oil futures fromOPEC pricing. This paper used price data about global spot oil and futures during Jan.,2001 and Dec., 2004 for analysis. The co-integration model clarifies the intimaterelationship between these two parts. That proves oil future speculation brings hugeinfluence on spot oil price. Setting up an oil future market in China therefore isnecessary. What's more, the conditions for building the market seem promisingfollowing the fuel oil future in Shanghai Futures Exchange.