| Water transportation has the advantage of less land occupation, low energy consumption, less pollution and large freight volume. So water transportation play an irreplaceable role in our country’s comprehensive transportation system, to develop water transportation accord with sustainable development strategy, is an important measure to adapt to China’s economic transition. Yangtze River about2838km, flows through seven provinces and second city, lies across the east, middle and west of our country, it is the first big rivers in China. Yangtze River waterway is the foundational facilities of Yangtze River logistics transportation, is an important link of the civil cultural exchanges, it plays an important role in our country’s history. Yangtze River experiences a long development course and different stages. The study of Yangtze river waterway’s development stage, will beneficial to sum up the experiences of the Yangtze river waterway development, reveal the Yangtze river waterway development rule, predict the Yangtze river’s waterway development trend, then to guide the development plan of the Yangtze river waterway, and put forward the development strategy of the Yangtze river waterway. At the same time, the research on Yangtze River waterway’s development stage division method filled the gap of quantitative research of the Yangtze River waterway development stage, and provides the reference for the inland waterway development research in the future.This paper takes the Yangtze River waterway development history as the main line, the inland waterway development characteristics as the theoretical basis, uses the mathematical statistics method and computer software divides the Yangtze River waterway’ development stage, analyzes the characteristics of each stage, puts forward the corresponding development strategy. The main research content includes the following four parts:1) Makes a simple overview on the historical development of the Yangtze River waterway and the Yangtze river waterway’s historical status and role in each historical period; Analyzes the current situation of the development of the Yangtze River waterway, and then summarizes the problems existing in the development of the Yangtze river waterway. 2) Makes research on the theoretical for inland waterway development division. First, analyzes the characteristics of inland waterway, summarizes the three driving factors of the development of inland waterway, based on this, established the basic theory of inland waterway development stage, and discusses the main influence factors of the inland waterway development.3) Divides the Yangtze River waterway’s development stage. First of all, establishes the principles and processes of the division of the Yangtze River waterway’s development stage; Secondly, combining with the development of inland waterway driving factors and influence factors, using the theory of correlation analysis and SPSS19.0software, selects the Yangtze River waterway division indexes, constructed the index system of the Yangtze River waterway division; Thirdly, using SPSS19.0software fitting the Yangtze River waterway development level, acquires Logistic division model of the Yangtze River waterway development, divides the Yangtze River waterway into five development stages that after the year of1949; Finally, analyzes the characteristics of the different stages.4) According to national policies and current situation of the development of the Yangtze River waterway, predicts the Yangtze River waterway’s development trend, based on this, puts forward the Yangtze River waterway’s development strategies. |