Study On The Impact Of Drought Disaster On The Rural Economy

Droughts occur frequently, the losses of droughts caused to thesocio-economic accounted for30%of all losses of natural disasters, and it’s themost significant natural disasters resulting in social and economic losses. Droughtdisasters can cause crop failures, farmers reduction, a direct impact on thedevelopment of the rural economy, reduce drought losses have an important role toensure the healthy development of China’s rural economy. Therefore, there isimportant practical significance to analyze mechanism of the impact of drought onthe rural economy, study the effect of drought on the rural economy, look foreffective disaster reduction path.This article use the system vulnerability theory in disaster economics toanalyze the causes of the impact of drought on the rural economy, use economicsmethods to study the impact of drought on the rural economic growth, the impact offarmers’ income, and food production. Use Cobb-Douglas production functionmodel and the co-integration theory to study the benefits of disaster reduction ofdrought invested, analyze the current deficiencies of drought invested managementand put forward improvement suggestions.Main conclusions are as follows:(1) The affect of drought on the rural economy is the result of the droughthazard factor risk and agricultural drought vulnerability together. Reducing thevulnerability of agricultural drought is an important way to reduce the affect of thedrought on the rural economy and disaster losses. The affect of drought on the ruraleconomy performance drought on agricultural production, the lives of farmers,farmers’ income, farmers’ psychological and rural economic growth.(2) Analysis of the impact of the drought on food production in rural areas,respectively, of drought intensity index and drought grain loss, time series data rateof drought-affected linear regression results: when drought intensity indexincreased by1%, the province’s grain yield loss The amount corresponding to anincrease of approximately0.91*106t. The drought index increase for every1%instrength, the effects of the drought rate increase in0.83%. Build Harrod-Domargrowth model to analyze the impact of the drought on rural economic growth andfarmers’ income, and then with the actual rate of economic growth and revenue comparison. The results show that there are adverse effects of drought on thegrowth of the rural economy and farmers’ income.(3) Four paths for research to reduce the adverse effects of drought on the ruraleconomy: increase drought invested funds, improve the effectiveness of droughtinputs, optimize drought risk management, and improve agricultural droughtinsurance. Using co-integration analysis theory to research one about theco-integration relationship between drought-invested and reduce disaster losses,other about the Granger causality, the results show that: the drought-invested fundsto reduce disaster losses Granger cause, but reduce disaster losses can not fund tothe drought-invested. Increase drought-invested is one of the path to reduce theimpact of drought on the rural economy. Build the basic principles of theCobb-Douglas production function model to research the affection ofdrought-invested in rural Anhui province, the results show that: effective put intolabor and drought invested have a positive role in reduce the loss of the ruraleconomy, rural drought-invested of Anhui province has in economic benefits,improve drought investment benefits can effectively reduce the impact of droughton the rural economy.