Research On The Relationships Between Population Structure And Residential Land Price In Wuhan

The city land price is the core index of the city land market information. It reflects not only the basic status of city land resource deployment, but also the economic environment of the whole macro market. Therefore, investigation of the factors of city land price plays a decisive role in the whole land market and even the prosperity, stability and harmony of the whole society.China has the largest population in the world. Since the "birth control", China has preliminary held the increasing tendency of population. However, clothing, food, residence and traffic is still basic necessities of people. The increasing population will inevitably increase the demanding of residence. According to the theory of Induced Demand, in recent years, due to the increasing population of China, the increasing residential land price has become a Common social phenomenon. The increasing city residential land price has become a serious challenge to the first-time buyers. Meanwhile, it is said by Demographers that according to related prediction, China is almost at the end of the period of Demographic Dividend. Aging society is coming up. To some extent, the residence demand will decrease, which would has a huge impact on the land market. Facing an important period of demographic transition, as the largest city in the middle of China, Wuhan is inevitably facing the same issue. How should Wuhan get prepared for these series of problems?By investigating the residential land price and the population structure in Wuhan, this paper concluded that:(1) By building the fitting model of residential land price and the population substructure, it turns out that quadratic polynomial has the highest goodness of fit, which indicates that quadratic polynomial reflects the volatility residential land price and every population substructure as well as changes in the amplitude of alternating characteristics. At the same time, it predicts that the residential land price in Wuhan will be increasing steadily between2012and2015. Based on the population structure of Wuhan between2012and2015. from the aspect of the natural population structure, sex ration is declining within the normal range year by year is gradually reaching a proper value. Structure of labor resources will decline. Dependency ratio will increase. From the aspect of population and socio-economic structure, family sizes will decrease gradually. The proportion of the employed population will increase year by year. The per capita disposable income will increase. From the geographical population structure aspect, there will be a slow increase in the proportion of non-agricultural population.(2) According to Spearman’s correlation coefficients test, it turns out that the structure of labor resources; the dependency ratio, household size, per capita disposable income and the proportion of non-agricultural population have a significant relationship with residential land price. The sex ratio, the proportion of employment and residential land prices has no correlation. The structure of labor resources, the per capita disposable income and the proportion of non-agricultural population and residential land prices are positively correlated. Dependency ratio, household size, and residential land prices are negative correlated. The correlation coefficients to the residential land price are (in descending order):the per capita disposable income family size> the proportion of non-agricultural population> the dependency ratio> labor resources structure.(3) By constructing the VAR model of residential land prices and population structure, the results from the variance decomposition analysis shows that, in the structure of the natural population, structure of labor resources have a big impact on residential land price not only in the short term but also in the long term, the labor resource structure impact on residential land prices is wavy. Dependency ratio has small impact on residential land price both in the short term and the long-term. From the economic structure of the population aspect, family size and per capita disposable income have relatively big impact on residential land prices in the short term. Family size impact on residential land prices tends to be stabilized in the long term. From the geographical structure of the population aspect, the proportion of non-agricultural population has small impact on residential land prices, both in short term and long term. In the end, according to related analysis of residential land prices of Wuhan, this paper comes up with suggestion of related policy:(1) Insist on the current real estate control policies; Inhibit excessive rising of land prices.(2) Positively develop and utilize labor resources, improve the quality of labor force.(3) Narrow the income gap, increasing household income.(4) Improve the housing supply structure and guide the residential consumer attitudes.(5) Progressive liberalization of family planning preferential terms, implement the two-child policy on testing area first.