Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Listed Companies Based On The Theory Of Survival Analysis

The process of an enterprise’s falling into financial crisis is gradually forming,gradual developing and continuously deteriorating. In the early stages of financialcrisis, if we can discover the symptom and fully display the dynamic process of it, itwill be of utmost significance to the enterprise and its stakeholders.This paper first analyzes the applicability and superiority of the survival analysismethod in the field of financial early-warning, and elaborates the theoretical frame ofthis paper; and then makes an in-depth analysis of the present state of listingcorporations in China and problems in the application of the financial crisisearly-warning model, thus provides a strong support for the sample selection andresearch methods. Given the above basis, this paper uses the results of previousstudies for reference to select primary indicators of financial early-warning, andprocesses the missing values and abnormal values of those indexes. In this way, theretention of data information will be maximized. Finally, this paper use three-yearahead financial ratio data and nonfinancial data from1990to2012of listingcorporations in the information technology industry to establish a financial crisisearly-warning model based on the Cox proportional risk model, and analyze the riskfactors and protective factors of financial crisis, and inspect the validity of the modelas well.