Listed Companies' Financial Risk Early Warning Based On Survival Analysis

The financial risk of the enterprise exists in enterprise production and operating activities and financial activities of each link, any enterprises have financial risk, and it is not inevitable. Financial risk may give enterprise benefits could lead to losses; in order to avoid financial risk brings to the enterprise loss, to construct an effective financial risk pre-warning system is very necessary. At present, the domestic and overseas scholars to enterprise financial risk pre-warning model of many scholars most used early warning model mainly includes: multivariable discriminate analysis model, multiple probability ratio model, logistic regression model, the artificial neural network model and survival analysis method and so on. Among them, the survival analysis is a new analysis method, its advantages and with the data in statistical methods in the flexibility on the financial risks of enterprise in the field of early warning model research using more and more.This paper mainly in Shanghai and Shenzhen two city a-share listed companies all the survival time data and financial data as research samples, listing company was special treatment (ST) define the symbol for what happened, financial risk by the life of survival analysis method and the Cox model to watch the empirical analysis, it is concluded that the study of the listed company survival time changing rules and the main factors that affect the financial risk. This paper first introduced the financial risk analysis based on the basic theoretical foundation institute; And then introduced the financial risks related concepts and domestic and foreign scholars financial risk analysis model of research results, and comparison analysis, it is concluded that the survival analysis is a comparative advantage of research methods; Then, the survival analysis method introduced the concept, basic function, common distribution and three model statistic method, and theoretical basis, data from the aspects of demonstrates the assurance of the applicability of survival analysis; Finally, this paper use China a-share listed company's survival time data and financial data, establish the Cox model financial risk analysis, find out the main factors that affect the financial risk. This paper innovation lies in systematically discusses survival analysis as a new financial risk analysis method, and the feasibility and applicability of the Chinese listed companies to use its financial risks of status analysis systematically, then explain survival analysis method in our country's financial risk management field have wide development space and good application prospect.