The Comparison And Selection Of Financial Crisis Early Warning Model For The Listed Companies

With the rapid development of domestic market economy, market competition becomes more and more fierce. As the corporations are the important subject in the fierce competition in the market economy, they under various risks, even by the threat of bankruptcy.Usually, most companies in financial crisis are made from normal gradually worsen such a gradual process. Therefore, the company’s financial crisis not only has aura, and also the warning. Due to the financial crisis will bring huge economic loss to the company’s shareholders and creditors, employees and other stakeholders, so the accurate warning to financial crisis will play the important role.According to the characteristics of each model and the characteristics of the companies, choose the appropriate financial crisis early warning model, the decision to stakeholders activities provide a very practical and effective tools.This article mainly lies in:through the strict screening process to meet the requirements of indexes.Set up two index system of the financial index system and the introduction of corporate governance variables index system. Choose the Z score model, F score model, Logistic model, Probit model, the BP neural network model five typical early warning models, through a set of continuous process:financial prewarning model principle, sample company selection, the variable parameter building, and the practical application, the model results analysis, the study on the model of the use of every detail processing and improve the company’s financial the precision of prediction. By comparing the different index system of the early warning model discriminant rate and the financial prewarning model of discrimination effect, comparing the financial crisis warning model’s assumptions, advantages and disadvantages, and striving to build a framework which including the traditional judgment experience and measuring model analysis. The article committes to the application of the new method of inspection, caution beg a certificate, repeated deliberate, try to make managers can according to their respective characteristics of the company choose the right model simulates the influence factors of the financial crisis, make the measurement model becomes the judgement of the financial crisis effective method of analysis.