Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Listed Companies On The Method Of Survival Analysis

Enterprises are the main participants and strengths in social economic activities,which will inevitably produce financial risk in the production and operation process.Financial risk can always bring benefits for the enterprises, but it will cause certain loss and even trigger a financial crisis if improperly controlled. The financial status is a dynamic process with constantly changing, it is of great significance to the enterprise and its stakeholders if the enterprises can find financial crisis signs timely and predict the trend of the financial risk with making full use of historical data.The paper firstly introduced the related concepts and methods, including of financial crisis warning and survival analysis, then it evaluated the applicability and superiority of survival analysis in the study of the financial crisis early warning on the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign research literature. Through a comprehensive analysis on the existing situation of Chinese listed companies, the paper selected the whole sample and the time defined of survival data. Reference to previous research results, it built a financial index system. Lastly, the paper used the best indexes which were processed preliminary by statistical method to establish semi parametric Cox regression model.According to the estimated results of the model, the paper analyzed the protective and the hazard factors which affected the financial crisis, and used the modeling sample and overall sample to test the predictive ability with accuracy of 84% and 81.66% respectively.In addition, the paper built an empirical comparison with Logistic regression model using the same sample; the results found that the predictive effect was inferior to the Cox model.Lastly, the paper chose some listed companies and showed their changing process of financial risk over the ten years, which illustrated the dynamic predictive ability of survival analysis. Therefore, survival analysis method is more effective and intuitive in the dynamic analysis of the financial risk than other models. The paper has great reference value on financial crisis early warning study.