Study On Regulation Policy Simulation And Scale Optimization Of China’s Grain Reserve

In the new period. grain crisis become a global problem. Although the grain supply and demand in China were basically balanced, grain production increased for nine consecutive years since2004, self-sufficiency rate maintained above95%. However, with the fast speeding of industrialization and urbanization, grain security is facing multiple challenges of gliding comparative benefits, decreasing productive resources and rising demands, which put forward higher requirements for government’s grain reserves regulation policy. Facing the new situation of grain security, in order to sufficiently give play to the role of macroeconomic control of grain reserves, main goals of grain reserve should be definite, reasonable reserve regulation policies should be made and regulation systems of grain reserves should be optimized. It will further deepen the grain economic theories in theory and possess important significances to the stability of China’s grain market and the guarantee of China’s grain security in practice.Aimed at the dispute of grain reserve regulation objectives between the new classical school and the structuralists, this research is based on the Equilibrium Theory, the Macro-control Theory, public goods theory and other theories related to grain reserve. Firstly, the theoretical model of China’s grain reserve regulation was constructed using mathematical economic analysis methods. Taking China’s paddy market as an example, paddy reserve regulation processes under different regulation objectives were simulated, and regulation effects under different objectives were compared from the aspects of cost efficiency, continuous regulation ability and social welfare, in order to define the grain reserve regulation objective in China and formulate appropriate reserve regulation policies. Secondly, based on the balance model and the volatility index method, the reserve scales which should be held for four different designed schemes under different regulation objectives were calculated, and the compared verification was done in two dimensions of regulation objective and regulation scheme in order to obtain the reasonable and moderate reserves and guarantee China’s grain security. Finally, relevant conclusions and policy suggestions based on the theoretical and empirical analysis were proposed.The result reveals that, in terms of grain reserve objectives, compared with taking stabilizing prices as the reserve objective, the ideal choice is to take guaranteeing grain security as the goal of reserve regulation, regardless of the comparisons from cost efficiency, continuous regulation ability or social welfare. As far as patterns of grain reserve regulation, compared with taking price fluctuations as the bases for regulation, the regulation pattern of taking yield fluctuations as the bases has strong operability and low cost and possesses certain superiority. As far as reserve scales, after comparison and analysis of four different regulation schemes under the objective of grain security, it comes that, on the one hand, the required grain reserve scales are larger and the fiscal expenditures are higher along with the higher demands of grain security level, on the other hand, the regulation effects will be more obvious if design asymmetric regulation schemes according to the policy needs. Therefore, our country should be guided under the reserve objective of grain security, choose yield fluctuation as the basis of regulation, determine the optimal reserve scale and improve China’s grain reserve regulation system.The innovation of this research is doing a systematic and monographic study of grain reserve regulation from a new perspective. Starting from the controversial focus of grain reserve regulation objectives, through the construction of reserve regulation theory model, the systematic comparative analysis was done between the two regulation objectives and the corresponding regulation pathways, which can provide powerful and empirical supports for the definition of China’s grain reserve regulation objectives and the determination of optimal reserve regulation policies.