The Study Of The Research And Development Cost Estimation Methods Of Space Launch Vehicle

In the space program, the space launch vehicle has always played an important role. The satellites, spacecraft and other aerospace equipment cannot be carried into the space without the space launch vehicles. With the development of the new technological revolutions and technological innovations, the launch vehicle design complexity is increasing, and the difficulty of the manufacture is also increasing, leading to the rapid growth of the space launch vehicle development cost. It is the key point of the operation and management of Space Launch Vehicle in this stage to find the correct way to scientifically estimate the launch vehicle development cost, effectively control the cost to achieve the best balance between the cost and the effectiveness, and provide support for the aerospace major project decision-making.As a high-input technology-intensive and high-talent-input industry, The development of space launch vehicle industry is extremely complex, and highly uncertainty, the impact of the launch vehicle development cost factors is more complex. Due to Chinese economic system, launch vehicle development cost management has lagged behind, and a variety of important information cannot be checked. In order to explore the suitable methods to solve the development cost estimates, this paper reviews the domestic and international aerospace military products cost management ideas, combing its developmental context; analyses the cost estimation methods, comparing various methods and summing up the advantages and disadvantages; and draws on the successful experience of the mature Cost Estimating System. This paper Discusses space launch vehicle cost management since the founding of China, analyzing its deficiencies. In this paper, based on previous experience, the design of the launch vehicle cost estimation methodology will be explored.The cost estimation methodology combines the rough set, neural network and gray system, fuzzy mathematics, as well as the combined predict methods. All the attribute data for the space of small sample data can be filtered using the rough set algorithm, so the redundant attribute data can be removed; and estimate with the traditional method of gray system, the neural network. At the same time, this paper innovatively use the fuzzy mathematics membership gray hybridist method to predict the bold exploration of forecasting methods; combination forecasting method based on density operator in order to improve the reliability of the forecast results, the methodology, the way to integration of qualitative factors, that is, managers can set parameter values in the combination forecasting method according to the forecast object, decision-making environment, and predict the results of a more flexible.In this paper, space simulation data can be used to validate the calculation with the methodology to compare the predictions and accuracy of different prediction methods, and the estimate forecast methodology were evaluated. Finally, according to the results of the study, summing up at this stage China’s launch vehicle development cost management deficiencies and leading to the reasons for inadequate, and giving suggestions for improvement.