The Yujiang River Basin Disastrous Flood Forecasting Based On Gray Neural Network

In this papar,Yujiang River disastrous flood the combination of the Yujiang River Basin Nanning segment over the years the actual situation of the floods and levees elevation, the disastrous flood boundaries were set at73m,75m and77m three conditions by Nanning (2) station than the warning level in131years flood data, the different flood data sequence. Meanwhile, by the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of gray system theory and artificial neural network, the rationality and feasibility of gray neural network combined model.Use gray neural network to predict the disastrous floods last year flood sequence of the three conditions, and then fit the actual situation, to judge the accuracy and credibility of gray neural network model, satisfactory accuracy, trained network weights and threshold of different flood sequence extrapolation forecast the next disastrous floods occurred2018.12325year,2018.48and2082.2.Consider the impact of Baise and the old port Dam Regulating, as well as flood control projects in Nanning Yong high flood level, flood data disaster Disastrous Flood of different working conditions forecast, you can get the new the extrapolation forecast data, the next disastrous floods occurred years2018.547062020.49and2082.2. It can be seen that in Baise and the laokou Dam Flood Storage Function, and flood control projects in Nanning Yong high flood level under the influence of, super73m super75m disastrous floods period were postponed for about0.5years and2years.