Application Of Mathematic Model In The Forecasting Of Malaria Incidence And Incidence Trend Analysis On Malaria In Hefei City

Objective Using the ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model andthe Markov model to predict the monthly incidence trend of malaria and providescientific data for malaria control and prevention in Hefei city.Methods To construct the multiple seasonal ARIMA model based on the monthlymalaria incidence of Hefei city from1999to2010with SPSS13.0software.Modifiedthe parameters of the ARIMA model according to the monthly malaria incidence in2011and then forecasted the monthly malaria incidence in2012in Hefei city.Toconstruct the Markov model based on the yearly malaria incidence of Hefei city from1990to2011with Excel softwareand Markov model was applied on epidemic trend ofmalaria in Hefei city in the next2years.Results The ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12model was the more suitbale model for forecastthe malaria incidence in Hefei city.The prediction vaules of malaria incidence was fit tothe practical situation.All true values fell in the95%confidence interval of expectedvalues for expected case numbers of malaria by the model.The mean relative error ofthe model was2.57%.Markov model forecasted the morbidity rates of malaria willwithin1-3.5/100000in Hefei city from2012to2013.However,in2012, the actualincidence of malaria were0/100000,The forecast and actual situation was no match.Conclusion It is practical to apply the approach of ARIMA product season model topredict malaria incidence in Hefei city by test and the model seems to be an appropriatemodel to predict the future incidence trend.This ARIMA model could provide evidence for the development of malaria prevention and control measures,but in this research theMarkov model seems not be an appropriate model to predict the future incidence trendin Hefei city. Objective To know the epidemic features of malaria in Hefei City in Anhuiprovince during2005-2009, and provide the foundation for malaria prevention andcontrol.Methods Based on the data collected from China Information System Disease Controland Prevention, the descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze theepidemiology of malaria in Hefei City during2005-2009. Based on the data collectedfrom Hefei Statistical Information Public Net, the meteorological data were analyzedwith the Multiple correlation and regression analysis.Results414cases were reported and the average annual incidence was1.57/100thousand in Hefei City during2005-2009.The highest incidence was2.05/100thousandin2007. There was obvious seasonality in the morbidity of malaria. The total amount ofmalaria onset cases was mainly concentrated from July to October, accounting for66.91%. Among those414reported cases, there were293males and121females, andthe average annual incidence rates of men and women were2.39/100thousand and1.08/100thousand, respectively. This gender incidence difference showed a statisticallysignificant（χ2=11.504,P=0.001）. The patients at the age of21-40were dominant,accounting37.68%of the total reported cases; Considering the occupationaldistribution, the case of farmers taken up the highest proportion(23.9%).The averagemonthly temperature and malaria monthly incidence showed a strong positivecorrelation,with a correlation coefficient as0.734(P=0.000).The average monthlyrelative humidity and malaria monthly incidence was positively correlated,with acorrelation coefficient as0.384(P=0.002).The average monthly rainfall before two months and malaria monthly incidence showed a strong positive correlation,with acorrelation coefficient as0.559(P=0.000).Conclusions The incidences of malaria in Hefei City showed a significant seasonsand genders difference. During popularity seasons,the vigorously malaria controlpropaganda is very important to reduce the occurrence of infection and controllingmalaria.