Study Of Climate Change Impacts On Water Carrying Capacity For Zhengzhou City

For hydrological cycle, the relationship between atmosphere system and water system appears extremely close. And water system changes caused by atmospheric system will reflect to human socio-economic development because of human activities. However, what extent of the effect may be? During the past 100 years, many scientists did related researches, but did not have a conclusion. Under this background, through analyzing the historical climate change law and its effect on water use sectors, the quantitative relationship between precipitation, temperature and the main factors of water carrying capacity is established, and the precipitation and temperature in 2010～2020 years with CGCM and CM atmospheric circulation models under A2 and B1 scenarios is projected in the paper, and then the influence of future climate conditions on the socio-economic development for Zhengzhou city are analyzed. The main conclusions are stated as follows:(1) Analyzed the variation laws of annual and seasonal average precipitation in the city of Zhengzhou in past 58 years. The results indicated that annual and seasonal average precipitation displayed a strong change process between years. Spring and summer precipitation took the largest proportion and played a decisive role in annual precipitation. Annual, spring, autumn and winter average temperature all showed an increasing trend, especially in 21st century. While summer average temperature did not show a significant warming or cooling trend, and have a more stable change. By correlation analysis, spring and autumn average temperature changes are the main reasons for the annual average temperature change in Zhengzhou city.(2) Based on the multiple linear stepwise regression analysis, this paper established the quantitative models of surface water resource, agricultural production in unit area and water demand per capita, and determined statistical significance through the calculation and analysis of determination coefficient, adjusted determination coefficient, F test and Durbin-Watson statistics. Results showed that all the models have a high simulation accuracy, and can be used to forecast the surface water resource, agricultural production in unite area and water demand per capita in the coming years.(3) Using CGCM and CM atmospheric circulation models and Delta downscaling method, this paper forecasted the annual and seasonal average precipitation and temperature in the 2010～2020 years under A2 and B1 scenarios. Results showed that annual average precipitation will reduce, while annual average temperature will increase. The variation means that the climate condition of Zhengzhou city will be drier in the next 11 years.(4) Based on the forecasted results of precipitation and temperature, and the analysis of socio-economic development under the historical climate condition, this paper forecasted the key indicators of water carrying capacity, and calculated the water carrying capacity for Zhengzhou city through water carrying capacity quantitative model. Results showed that water resource carrying capacity will overload in 2010-2020 years under A2 and B1 scenarios, and present an increasing trend. While under A2 scenario, the condition will be more severe than B1 scenario.