Assessment And Projection Of Wind Resource Based On Regional Climate Models

The goal of carbon neutrality provides a new opportunity for the development of renewable energy,and further promotes the large-scale development of wind power.Under the context of climate change,wind energy is directly affected by the temporal and spatial changes of wind speed.Accurate assessment and forecast of wind energy potential are of great significance to China’s wind power development and decision making.In this paper,based on the numerical simulation results from a high-resolution(～25 km)regional climate model PRECIS,we analyzed the changes of future wind speed and wind power potential in the "Three North"(TN)region in China.The results show PRECIS has a good ability in reproducing the spatiotemporal patterns of wind speed in the eastern part of the TN region,but still has a great uncertainty in the northwest.In the future,the projected wind power density in the TN region will increase by about 0.7%in the middle of the 21st century,but will drop significantly in the end of the century(about-3.3%).Furthermore,wind power density will increase significantly in winter,but generally decrease in spring and summer.It is predicted that most of the Northwest and North China will have a strong inter-annual variability in the middle of this century,which will be more stable at the end of this century.The potential of wind energy in Northeast will grow steadily in this century,which will have a certain guiding significance for future wind power planning in this region.In order to reduce the uncertainty of single model,besides PRECIS,this paper added the results of regional climate models in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment-East Asia(CORDEX-EA),and evaluated the influence of different resolutions and weighted methods on historical wind speed simulation.The results show that RCMs with 0.22°×0.22° spatial resolution are better than those with 0.44°×0.44°.The weighted ensemble shows better simulated skill than unweighted ensemble,and the weighted ensemble greatly reduces the biases in the western region of China particularly.In future,wind speed will decrease in most regions of China under the RCP8.5 scenario,although some regions,such as southern parts of China,are projected to have an increase of wind speed.Accordingly,the wind power will decrease in the north and increase in the south,with the largest decrease in the northwest.It is noted that the wind power density over South China and the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will increase by about 6%.The inter-annual variation of wind power density in most regions will increase,indicating that the inter-annual variation of wind power may be more intense under the influence of climate change.However,intra-annual variation in wind power density is likely to decrease in most regions of China,ranging from about-20%to-50%,indicating that affected by climate change,the interannual oscillation of wind energy will be more intense and the annual cycle will be more stable.