Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Resource In Dongjiang Basin

The global climate system is undergoing significant change in the past century, thechanging environmental conditions which also intensely influenced by human activities havechanged the hydrological cycle and global water resources to varying degrees. The DongjiangRiver is one of the major water that supply water to the important cities, such as Guangzhou,Dongguan, Shenzhen and Hongkong. The basin water supply and demand contradiction,water quality, water environment and other issues are becoming prominent as the socialeconomy developed and water use increases. Therefore, the research on the impacts of climatechange on Dongjiang River Basin water resources possesses great significance.Through the research and literature study, this dissertation analyses the main researchachievements of climate change on basin water resource, classifies and summaries the keyissues the current researches facing and outlooks the tendency of future research and the keyfield for impacts research of climate change on water resourse.Based on basin characteristics of Dongjiang, the variation characteristics is analysed byMann-Kendall test and Moving t-test technique: the annual average temperature of DongjiangRiver increased significantly in the past50years, obvious trend of rainfall and runoff does notappear; basin temperatures begin to mutate in1986, a more dramatic change rainfall andrunoff occurred in1972and some time off.The new generation of climate change scenarios and CMIP5modes are introduced in thepapaer, so as the in-depth analysis of the structure and principles VIC hydrological model.VIC hydrological model of Dongjiang River Basin is constructed in this research, parametershas been calibrated and model adaptability is verifed. Dongjiang River Basin VIChydrological model is coupled with the CIMP5multi-mode downscaling data under the use ofa new generation of climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5and RCP8.5to model theresponses of temperature, rainfall and runoff to climate change.Comprehensive analysis for the modeling results from the climate and hydrologiycoupling simulation show: the temperature most of the Dongjiang River Basin region willcontinue to rise over the next40years; rainfall in most of the region will continue to decrease over the next40years; under complicated effect of temperature, rainfall and other factors, thefuture mean annual runoff, flood runoff and dry season runoff of the Dongjiang River Basinradiate a decreasing trend, especially in the dry season, the water resource issue of DongjiangRiver Basin become increasingly prominent in the future will.