| As is prevalent in the daily transport organization, passenger train delay trends toward normalization. Affected by the railway emergencies, the scale of train delay,both in time and space, enlarges extremely, then it comes train delay on large scale. As people pay more attention to the safety of railway transportation and emergency management, train delay on large scale and its disposal becomes the focus. Due to the large scale of delay and the complex process for disposal, train delay on large scale makes different from the traditional train organization in basic implication and disposal process, therefore the research of train delay on large scale could help us make a clear understanding on the cause of formation, trigger conditions and disposal process, based on those it will prevent the occurrence or reduce its influence if measures are taken properly in each stage. However, seldom relevant researches are seen at present, which cannot meet the needs of the analysis and disposal. Thus, research of train delay on large scale under the field of emergency disposal is needed urgently.Based on the factors and influence mechanism analysis of traditional train delay, it establishes the causal mapping of railway emergency. Then, the forming cause of train delay on large scale is found through the analysis of its forming process and inner relationships of causal mapping.Secondly, in the view of time and space of train delay affects, basic definition of train delay on large scale is proposed after we have the cause of formation. To solve the time and space’s quantitative problem when judging train delay on large scale, it divides the railway network into basic units by the range of one singe train dispatcher precinct and treats the train delay on large scale as event of small probability to compute the parameters about time. After that, the judgment model can be built.Thirdly, based on the research in advance, disposal process before, occurring and after train delay on large scale is judgment is analyzed. The system about it is also designed and described. The contents of each part are introduced in chapter5.Finally, it gives the summary and outlook of the whole thesis and comes into the following conclusion:The research proposed in this paper combine the theory and practice in train delay on large scale and solves the practical problems of current research in emergency disposal, also lays a solid foundation of the prevention and disposal response of train delay on large scale. |
