Flood Risk Research Of Nanning Flood Control Engineering Sistem

This paper based on nanning city flood control engineering system as the research object, to compute the library dam joint urban flood control engineering system of flood control risk rate as a starting point, according to the measured flood series, using first-order seasonal autoregressive model to simulate the incoming flood, incorporating the incoming flood and flood region composition of hydrologic uncertainty and cognitive uncertainty factors of flood forecast error and hysteresis when dispatching of cascade reservoirs operation management of uncertainty factors. In established limit water level and flood control scheduling rules, according to the library dam joint city flood control engineering system for flood control risk calculation model, the application of monte carlo random simulation method, with the MATLAB language for computing platform, interval and flood respectively with baise baise different frequency and interval to simulate the flood combination of the two calculation schemes, the library dam flood control engineering system for the risk analysis for flood regulating calculation, calculation of reservoir flood control risk rate and nanning.Calculation results indicate that the incoming flood frequency and the flood region composition of hydrologic uncertainty factors, cognitive uncertainty factors of flood forecast error and hysteresis of reservoirs operation management uncertainty factors are the main factors influencing the nanning flood control risk. Through the scientific prediction and decision-making, can reduce the influence of uncertainty factors, improve the nanning city flood control engineering system for flood control capacity. When once the following floods in200happened, baise, old two mouth joint operation can satisfy the requirement of nanning flood control safety design. Increase with the increase of the flood, flood risk, but risk rate within a certain range is not large, according to the standard of regional floods, appropriately raise dispatch of reservoir limited water level, through the joint reservoir optimal operation, improving the flood resource utilization, increase the comprehensive benefits of flood control. When calculating the risk rate of flood control system is presented in this paper, using interval frequency flood and modeling and reservoir flood random combination, formed a fast calculation method of the urban flood control engineering system risk effectively, establish the relationship between the flood frequency and risk, provide a reference for flood control system of flood dispatching decision basis.