| With the fast development of the social economy of the country, exploitation andusing of surface water, groundwater and precipitation have already reached the limit,exploiting and using the new fresh water resources has already become the currentimminent duty. In this instance, as non-routine water resources flood has come intopeople's field of vision gradually.Flood brought enormous disaster to people, but flood is not only disaster attribute butalso resource attribute. In 2003, the national flood prevention and fight a droughtheadquarters proposed officially the concept of "flood resourcing" that requested to use theflood resources as far as possible on the premise of taking suitable and controllable risk.Raising flood control level of the reservoir reasonably as a kind of effective measure andmethod which excavated flood resources potential, it has been regarded by peoplegradually.Author read and analyzed research result widely, under the background of floodresoucing, as risk benefit analysis of raising reservoir flood control level the subject,reservoir flood prevention risk rate computation model by the method of DC and MC, andrisk benefit synthetically appraisal model of flood prevention level by the method of BPnetwork were established. The actual situation of Zhanghewan reservoir was integrated,rainstorm flood characteristic, flood season division rule and reservoir adjustment floodcourse of Zhanghewan reservoir were analysised and calculated. Flood control leveladjustment project was appraised synthetically based on the models from the two aspects ofrisk and benefit, the disadvantage of traditional appraisement method that don't appraiseform risk was fetched up. Main content and result of this article as follows:(1) Zhanghewan reservoir flood season subordination arrived the highest valuebetween the month 7 and 8, the traditional flood season method is suitable based oncalculating result of flood season subordination. Reservoir "the last flood season" isobvious during transition form main flood season to after the non- flood season, in theprocess of raising flood control level, the monitoring of rainstorm and flood must bestrengthened.(2) Reservoir flood prevention risk rate probability distribution formula of reservoirflood prevention risk rate was deducted by analyzing no determinate influence factors ofreservoir flood prevention risk, computation model was established and commutated based on (MC). The whole model has fully used superiority of the DC with strong theory andthe MC with convenient computation. The computing result indicated that, afterZhanghewan reservoir flood control level raised to 480.5m, the flood prevention risk whichthe reservoir increased was controlled in the scope of withstanding.(3) Simulating calculation result of reservoir adjusting flood indicated, in thesituation of examination flood, in the case of 480.5m plan, highest flood water level488.3m is lower than immigrant water level 488.5m of reservoir district; backwatercomputation was carried on based on 480.5m plan; results indicated that, this plan satisfiedthe design principle of reservoir backwater not to enter Shanxi Province. Therefore,influence was very small adjusting flood control level to the reservoir district submergence,storing water submergence risk of reservoir district can be not considered.(4) risk and benefit target of raising flood control level were consideredsynthetically, every plan was appraised synthetically by the model based on BP network,the results indicated: The 480.5m plan surpassed the 478.5m plan. Compared this result tooriginal plan, validity of the method in this paper was proved by instance calculation.
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