Research On Land Use Forecast And Valuation Of Carbon Sequestration Ecosystem Service In Costal Zone Of Poyang Lake

Terrestrial ecosystem is main carbon source and carbon sink of global greenhouse gas, the change of storage volume of carbon is very important for global climatic variation because of carbon storage by biomass and organic matter. Carbon released into the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystem which caused by LUCC is the key factor of increasing of carbon dioxide density in the atmosphere. LUCC not only directly affects carbon distribution and content in the terrestrial ecosystem, but also can indirectly influence carbon distribution and content in the terrestrial ecosystem through effecting factors associated with the formation of carbon. Therefore, it plays an important role in the study of global climate and carbon cycle of continent to quantitatively assess influences on carbon storage and carbon sequestration of the terrestrial ecosystem which are affected by LUCC.The coastal zone of Poyang Lake is regard as research zone in this paper. Firstly, based on data of land utilization, social economy and spatial environment of the coastal zone, the paper forecasts and analyzes land use of the coastal zone in the future by using the Markov chain model; And then, with the InVEST model, the paper calculates carbon storage and the value of carbon sequestration of the coastal zone from2000to2010, and also evaluates the carbon sequestration ecosystem value of the costal zone from2015to2040according to data of land utilization forecasted above. Finally, the paper visually displays the carbon storage and carbon sequestration value of the coastal zone by GIS software, so as to show the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem service, meanwhile evaluates and analyzes the carbon sequestration ecosystem service of the coastal zone in terms of time and space.The paper finds out that:first, the area of cultivation land and Water and land for water facilities are decreasing at a low speed and small amplitude from2015to2040. The cultivated land mainly changed into forest land, residential land, industrial and mining warehouse land and land for transportation, for that the growing population and constant economic growth stimulate the demand of residential land and building land. Besides, the government pays more attention to development of ecological benefits and implements policies and guidelines such as "grain for green" to protect the completeness of ecosystem’s structure and function. Second, the carbon storage of the terrestrial ecosystem in Coastal zone increases steadily from2015to2040, and the carbon is mainly stored in forest land and cultivated land for the sum of the two is95percent of the total carbon storage in coastal zone, however, the carbon storage of industrial and mining warehouse land, land for transportation and other land are few because there are scarce vegetation to contain enough biomass and organic matter which can store carbon. Carbon sequestration of the terrestrial ecosystem is decreasing year by year. The number of carbon sequestrated in cultivated land ecosystem is negative each five years, as part of cultivated land and converted into desert and marsh which are short of vegetation cover due to the lack of management or unreasonable tillage method. This will cause the number of biomass and organic matter reducing substantially and eventually lead to carbon storage of cultivated ecosystem dwindling and make the ability of carbon sequestration weaker.