| Land is an important carrier of ecosystem carbon storage,and the carbon fixation function of terrestrial ecosystem plays a key role in climate regulation.Human activities have caused changes in land use patterns and layout,leading to changes in the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems.Currently,land use change has become the second largest carbon source after fossil fuel combustion,and is an important reason for the conversion of carbon sequestration into carbon emissions in terrestrial ecosystems.As an important component of the Yangtze River Delta,the Wanjiang Urban Belt actively undertakes the important task of undertaking industrial transfer in the eastern developed regions and promoting the rise of the central region.The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in the region has led to further increase in the degree of land space development,structural changes,and increased carbon emissions along with socio-economic growth.Evaluate the carbon storage function of the terrestrial ecosystem in the Wanjiang Urban Belt,It is of great significance to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of regional terrestrial ecosystems,explore land use optimization paths guided by carbon storage maximization,and achieve regional carbon neutrality goals.Therefore,under the"dual carbon"goal and the background of territorial spatial planning,based on the land use data of the Wanjiang urban belt in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020,Arc GIS software is used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use during the historical period from 2000 to 2020,and then Markov-FLUS model is used to simulate land use changes under three scenarios of natural development,ecological priority,and farmland protection in 2040,The impact of land use change on carbon storage in the Wanjiang urban belt during the historical period from 2000 to 2020and under three scenarios from 2040 is estimated using the In VEST model.Finally,suggestions are proposed for optimizing and managing land use in the Wanjiang urban belt under the guidance of minimizing carbon storage loss.The main research results are as follows:(1)The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use in the Wanjiang urban belt:From 2000 to 2020,the area of cultivated land,forest land,and grassland in the Wanjiang urban belt decreased by 2041.50 km~2,130.69 km~2,and 49.99 km~2,respectively,while the area of construction land,water area,and unused land increased by 2097.48 km~2,83.13km~2,and 9.78 km~2,respectively.The comprehensive land use dynamic degree reached0.145.The transfer out of cultivated land and the transfer in of construction land are the most prominent in land type conversion.Hefei,Chuzhou,and Wuhu cities have seen the largest decrease in cultivated land and increase in construction land.The expansion area of construction land is mainly distributed in the original main urban areas of various cities and spreads around.(2)The spatiotemporal response of carbon storage in the Wanjiang urban belt:From2000 to 2020,both the total carbon storage and the ground average carbon density in the Wanjiang urban belt showed a decreasing trend,with the total carbon storage decreasing from 917.36Tg(1Tg=10~6t)to 902.84Tg,and the ground average carbon density decreasing from 120.71t/hm~2to 118.79t/hm~2.The conversion of farmland and forest land from high carbon sequestration land to construction land from low carbon sequestration land is the main reason for carbon loss.The carbon storage presents a spatial distribution characteristic of"low in the north and high in the south,low in the middle and high around".Xuancheng,Anqing,and Chuzhou are among the top three cities in the Wanjiang urban belt in terms of carbon storage,with the sum of the three cities accounting for54.35%of the total in 2020.Hefei and Chuzhou are the cities with the largest loss of carbon reserves,with 4.20 Tg and 2.05 Tg lost respectively from 2000 to 2020,accounting for 43.01%of the total loss.(3)Land use change under multi-scenario simulation in the Wanjiang urban belt:Under the cultivated land protection scenario,the cultivated land increased by 105.98 km~2,while under the ecological priority scenario,the forest land and grassland increased by 27.59 km~2and 7.01 km~2,respectively,which is different from the law of continuous reduction of the above three land types in the natural development scenario.Construction land continues to expand under the above three scenarios,but the growth of 40.56 km~2and 1113.90 km~2under the farmland protection and ecological priority scenarios is far less than the growth of 1361.60 km~2under the natural development scenario.(4)The impact of land use change on carbon storage in the Wanjiang urban belt under multi scenario simulation:There are significant differences in carbon storage in the Wanjiang urban belt between 2020-2040 under different simulation scenarios,with total carbon storage decreasing by 9.86Tg,6.91Tg,and 1.64Tg under natural development,ecological priority,and farmland protection scenarios,respectively;The ground average carbon density is 117.50 t/hm~2,117.88 t/hm~2,and 118.58 t/hm~2,respectively;The area of carbon storage reduction areas is 1993.00 km~2,1383.46 km~2,and 373.76 km~2,respectively.The conversion between cultivated land,forest land,and construction land is still the main reason for reducing carbon storage.The land use pattern under the scenario of farmland protection and ecological priority has a significant mitigation effect on carbon storage loss. |
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