Estimate Runoffs Based On HIMS Model Of Xiying River Basin

Xiying River which is one of the third of Shiyang River,is suffering a series ofsevere water-related environmental problems because of drought,water shortage,andglobal climate human activities.These problems are becoming constraint on economicand social sustainable development.The platform of simulation system (HIMS) whichpossess team independent intellectual property rights,we intend to construct asimulation system (HIMS) which is suitable for Xiying River.Based on this model,wecan quantitatively analyze the impact of future precipitation and temperature changeon mountain pass runoff change,and compute ecological base flow, providing a basisfor applying of HIMS in Xiying River;providing a hydrological simulation referencefor the comprehensive management of Xiying River Basin. The main conclusions ofthis paper are as follows:1. The simulating effect of the constructed HIMS model which concerns theupstream of Xiying River.Both calibration and validation period efficiency coefficientof day process model reach0.64and0.67;both calibration and validation periodefficiency coefficient of month process model reach0.81and0.85.The calibration andvalidation period efficiency coefficient of mouth process model is relatively excellent.2. Based on the constructed HIMS system of Xiying River,the influence ofclimate change in the study area is analyzed.There are24simulative scenes that theprecipitation increase10%and20%on original basis,temperature decreased1℃and2℃on original basis.After the analysis on annual change and distribution of annualrunoff within a year,we reach a conclusion: the most advantageous situation is that thetemperature falls2℃,precipitation increases20%,and annual runoff increases.(1)If the amount of precipitation is constant, the temperature increases1℃,annual runoff decrease0.01×108m3,and the runoff rate is-0.24%and-0.48%.Ifthe temperature is constant,the precipitation increase10%,annual runoff increases0.49×108m3,and the runoff rate is11.64%and23.50%. Climate change based on adistributed hydrological model of HIMS should be more reasonable.(2)When the temperature rises, the runoff rate average decreases0.24%and the evaporation rises.When the temperature drops, the evaporation drops and the runoffdecreases.(3)The change of the precipitation effects on the runoff of JiuTiaoling observably.The change of the precipitation which effects on different months’runoffs isconfirmed. When the precipitation separately increases10%and20%,the runoff ofevery month increases.(4)The influence on different temperature is less than the influence on differentprecipitation.If the temperature is constant, the precipitation separately decreases10%,20%and increases10%,20%,the runoff is-10.79%,-22.78%,11.64%,23.50%.If theprecipitation is constant, the temperature separately decreases1℃,2℃and increases-1℃,-2℃,the runoff is0.48%,0.24%,-0.24%,-0.48%.