Analysis Of Climate Change In Xinjiang Yarkant River Basin And Its Effects On Runoff

Based on the temperature,precipitation from the Meteorological Stations (1961-2006) in the Yarkant River Basin, and the annual runoff (1954-2000) of Kaqun and Alaer Hydrological Station,this paper analyzed the characteristic and tendency, and the response of runoff to climate change. The results show that:1.The temperature has a slightly increasing tendency, extent being 0.19℃/10a,which of winter is the biggest, but that of summer is unconspicuous. In 1960s,1970s,1980s,the tendency is downturn but it is gradually increasing after 1990s.In space the extent of mountainous area is bigger than that of the plain area.Through the abruptly verify of Mann-Kendall, there are sudden points in 1987. The period of annual temperature is firmed, being period of 10a.2.There is a gradual rise in precipitation, its humidity extent is 5.53mm/10a and passing the significant test of 0.05 reliability.At the same time,the tendency is similar with that of northwestern and Xinjiang region.There are sudden points in 2001.The period of precipitation having conspicuously short perion of 3a, 7a.3.The warm temperature happened in 1980s,1990s,especially in the 21st century but the cold temperature occurred in 1960s, 1970s, the rest of years lies in a normal range. The year of normal precipitation is only 10 years, accounting for 22 percent. The beginning of the 20th century,the wet and average water years in Yarkant River father calibre flow are many but the dry years are only two respectively in 1991 and 1993.4.There is a decreasing tendency in the days of storms and dust in the area but the days of strong wind is increasing,especially in the upstream areas.5.There is an increasing tendency in precipitation in Yarkant River, Alaer Hydrometric Station but the tendency in downstream area of the station is reduced.not Neither passing the significant test of 0.05 reliability nor having sudden points. The main period is 4 years.6.Through multiple regression and correlation analysis and selecting Yark -ant River upstream Taxkorgan summer weather and the July-August average temperatures and precipitation runoff card group Hydrometric Station regression analysis, regression equation is got. The equation is tested by F-test and passing the significant test of 0.001 reliability.