Simulation And Application Of Land-use And Land-cover Patterns In Xinfu County Of Xinzhou City

Humans using and reforming land resources for their ownpurpose is the main content of land-use and land-coverchange(LUCC)，which has become one of highly emphasized fieldsabout the global change research in recent years，and also been animportant part of global sustainable development research. Theresearch on LUCC needs “jointing” of land-use and land-cove state.Using the model to explore this changing process is an importantmeans in current research. However，the basis of building LUCCmodel is to study the relation between land-use and land-coverpatterns and their influence factors in a moment.This paper selects Xinfu county of Xinzhou city as the researcharea， and the land-use and land-cove patterns in2009as theresearch object， discussing the relation between four types ofland-use and land-cover patterns and the influence factors with thetwo scales of30m×30m and90m×90m， at the same time，constructing Logistic regression model to simulate the distributionpattern. Meanwhile，this paper has discussed the application in thedelineating protection area by the simulation results.The main contents of this paper are: First，data extraction and quantified. On the ArcGIS platform，irrigated land， dry land， woodland and grassland have beenextracted from the land-use map separately， constituting theexplanatory variables of the model by the binarization processing.Meanwhile，this paper combines demographic data and a digitalelevation model(DEM) of Xinfu county，extracting socio-economicdata and natural geographic data， and forming the explanatoryvariables of the model to the quantization.Second, the construction of the model. This paper makes astatistical analysis about the relation between four types ofland-use and land-cover patterns and their influence factors in theway of Logistic regression and the SPSS analysis，paving the way tonext step of the simulation results by building all types of Logisticregression from the parameters obtained.Third is the precision verification and simulation result. Insupport of the SPSS software, this paper has examined fourindicators of modeling accuracy, meanwhile taking advantage ofthe ROC method to test the explanatory ability of the model. On theArcGIS platform, this paper has simulated four types of land-use andland-cover pattern by using the model obtained, then analyzing thereason about the failure of dry land simulation further in the view oflandscape ecology.Forth, the application of simulation results. This paper willnever stop studying only because of the simulation resultsobtained，moreover， proposing the delineating method of protectedareas with the use of Logistic regression models and the simulationresults. Finally，because of the application，the simulation results have practical significance.