Forecasting And Scenario Analysis Of Energy Security In Beijing

Energy, as the motive force of economic development, is an important material foundation to develop economy and improve people’s living standard, and also the crucial guarantee for China economy to achieve the sustainable, rapid and stable development. As an resource-poor city, and its energy consumption ranks second in China, Beijing highly dependent on the other cities. Especially in recent years, with the urban development, the contradiction between energy supply and demand is more outstanding. Therefore, in order to realize the sustainable development of economy, environment and society, we need analysis the energy current situation of Beijing, forecast the energy demand and degree of energy security in the next few years.Firstly, this paper elaborates the external environment for energy sustainable development of Beijing from the following three aspects, the demand and supply of energy, energy consumption and economic growth, and energy consumption and carbon emissions. Secondly, analyses on the influence factors of energy security in recent years, then select the representative11single indexes to establish the energy security warning system. Finally, based on the scenario analysis method, the principal component analysis method and grey prediction model, this paper forecasts energy demand and warns energy security for Beijing. The results show that:Firstly, the degree of energy security in Beijing has declined and have been gradually worse in recent years. Secondly, it is known that energy factors, economic factors and environmental factors are the key factors, and social factors influence relatively small. In addition, the order of each index is:energy prices>energy supply-demand ratio> energy reserve-production ratio>energy self-sufficiency rate>Soot emissions growth rate>decline rate of energy consumption per unit of GDP>flexibility coefficient of energy consumption>reduction rate of sulfur dioxide emission>growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions>transport capacity> import concentration. Thirdly, based on the results of scenario analysis, energy security degrees of scene1is lower than that of scene2, and energy security degrees of scene2is lower than that of scene3. Moreover, energy security degrees of scene1and scene2declines, and that of scene3rises gradually. Therefore, policy should not only ensure economy to grow steadily, but also reduce vulnerability of energy security as low as possible.