Research On Scenario Analysis For Rural Energy Strategy

The paper firstly discussed the theory of scenario analysis, neural network and gray forecasting model, and put forward the thought of the prediction of rural energy and its structure. At first, the present conditions, the supply and the problem of rural renewable energy was analyzed. Second, the scenario analysis method is applied for predicting the demand of rural energy consumption setting three main scenarios. The neural networks are applied for predicting in every scenario. Third, according to the characteristics of rural energy data, the gray forecasting model is applied for predicting rural energy structure. At last the rural energy strategy is studied. It is put forward that the strategic objectives, strategic focus, general idea, policy recommendations.The theory of scenario analysis and neural network are applied for predicting the demand of rural energy consumption. The gray forecasting model is applied for predicting the structure of rural energy consumption. It is shown that the proportion of the commodities energy and life energy in the rural energy structure will not change a lot.