| With the rapid development of national economy, social, energy, environmentface enormous challenges, there is an increasing percentage of the advantages ofnatural gas because of its high efficiency and clean in the primary energy. InChina,the development of natural gas market of sichuan and Chongqing isrelatively mature, and natural gas has been involved in the industry, fertilizer, city gas,metallurgy, building materials which are related to the national economy and keyindustries or enterprises.In recent years, urbanization and industrialization ofSichuan and Chongqing speed up,the gap between supply and demand of natural gashas increased, the contradictions is obvious.In order to meet the demand,Sichuan-Chongqing region strengthen introduction of the intensity of natural gas fromAsia, Russia, Burma except improving the production of local natural gas anddeveloping unconventional natural gas.After the gas source guaranteed, safty oftransport becomes the basis and security for the development natural gas market, soSichuan-Chongqing constantly improve the construction of the pipeline network, andhas become an important part of a nationwide pipeline network in Chine.Under thecondition of network,there will be a a significant change in pattern of supply anddemand,the gas of Changqing, Sichuan-Chongqing and imported gas are connectedwith each other, and gas sources become diversified,pipeline form a network,scheduling is unified and supply become flexible which form a new pattern.Supplying will be alleviated, interruptibility and peaking capacity will be strengthen,safety will be improved.On the other hand, character of diversified gas can meetdifferent users for different requirements. At the same time, the sharp contradictionbetween imported gas and self-manufactured prices and different capacity makes the price of natural gas complex. So research dynamic system model for natual gassupplying and demanding n pipelinen networking in advance,which can give a help toformulate plan for natural gas market of Sichuan-Chongqing and construct greenand harmonious society.The purpose of this paper is to make health, stable and rapid natural gas marketin Sichuan-Chongqing. The characteristics of System dynamics makes it disposecyclic, dynamic, nonlinea problems availabily.Based on development of natural gasmarket in domestic and overseas and Sichuan-Chongqing at present and status ofsupply and demand, describe complicated relationship of natural gas, expressstructure with differential equation. Combined with the balance theory of supplyingand demanding in economics, set up the city gas, chemical fertilizer, industrial’snatural gas ssystem dynamic model. choose subsystems, determine the structure ofthe model through analysising the main factors such as industrial policy, economicdevelopment, prices of natural gas, natural gas utilization which influence naturalgas’s supply and demand.when amount of supplying is certain, relationship of gas proportion is the shife,so we can directly control user’s gas consumption by adjusting proportion. In recentyears, the city gas grows explosively, chemical fertilizer uses most gas because ofindustrial policy and prices controlled by goverment, and price of natural gas islower than other alternative energy,wich leads to excess demand, causes distortedsupplying and demanding, industrial policy is soft environment for healthydevepment of natural gas market, price can regulate market leverage, rationality ofthem directly affect supplying and demanding of natual gas, so price of natural gasuses as a separate system based on the policy of price controing. In background ofindustrialization and urbanization, speed of economic growth is direct reason thatsimulate demand, because rapid economic development leads to industry to flourish.In this model,technology innovation display as strength of natural gas.Using thismodel can predict supply of natural gas, analyse influence degree in factors.Through sensitivity analysis of energy structure, economic growth, results showsthat the most greatest influential factor is growth rate of economy, proportion ofnatural gas is followed, strength of natural gas is the last, therefore this article forecastnatural gas’s demand in high speed growth and low speed growth of economic.Results of simulation show that situation of natural gas in Sichuan-Chongqing willchange from short of demand into balance even oversupply between supply and demand in next few years. All in all,demand continues to grow quickly, come up to407*10~8stere.in2020, city gas demand maintain strong growth, and still is the mainforce of natural gas consumption, proportion increases and come to the steady state atlast;the demand of industrial is active,proportion mainly keep balance; difference offertilizer consumption is not big, but the proportion will continue to decrease. Finally,according to data from analysis and forecast, this paper start with structuraladjustment, security of supply, price reform, put forward to countermeasures topromote development of gas market in networking. |
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