The Study On Shanghai Housing Supply And Damand

All problems in obtaining appropriate housing are associated with the coming of real estate market. As a continuous increase in the price of the real estate, average residents affording housing is more difficulty. This thesis will provide a guideline and a solution to these problems.After Shanghai started its housing system reform, Market become residents obtain housing only through. The reform released the demand for housing, which facilitates establishment of thousands of real estate developers. As suppliers and demanders increase in number, these help promote the real estate market. However, the unbalance still exists to a certain extent, which results in many problems. The problem is that the real estate market is unbalance between the supply and demand. The current supply is greatly in shortage, especially for the intermediate to small areaed and middle to low priced real estates, which in turn intensifies the unaffordability of the housing.In order to solve these, This thesis presents an analysis on the factors influencing the real estate supply, such as financial , sale prise, government, cost, policy, market anticipation of real estate developers, the time-lagging of the supply, and so on. Different factor has different impact on the real estate market, in terms of the amount of supply, type, construction and trade costs, etc., in a word, the amount and cost of the real estate supply. It can be concluded that the government neglected its responsibility for managing the real estate developing, that the developer ignored their social obligations, and that the housing unit is designed too big to afford. In addition, the shortage in the economic class plus the exclusive operation of its commercial counterpart house, also contribute to the scarcity. expensiveness, and inconvenient location of available housing. As a supplementary to the free real estate market, the housing within the social security system only covers a small range of residents, and is also in great scarcity. The unbalance between supply and balance firstly lies in the amount of the available housing. In Chapter 3, According to mathematical model ,the amount for the future years was predicted. By doing so, it can provides some hints for the government to solve the problem, and for the real estate to decide the type of their real estate projects.In the real estate demand forecasting, Through analysis on the demography and family structure, GDP, the ratio of housing price to family income, financial policy, governmental policy, residents' market anticipation, area of housing unit, location, and ambient environment etc., the each characteristics of current demand was presented, the each type of demand was identified, the amount of the demand was predicted. On the ability of a family buy real estate, and the possibility index for a family to buy real estate is calculated based on the analysis on the ability of a family with average income to buy real estate. The above analysis could provide some background information on which a real estate developer can perform its real estate project feasibility study, and decide the type of their projects, meanwhile, provide housing buyers a benchmark for choosing the location and price of the real estate to be purchased.Following a thorough analysis, the Chapter 5 concludes that the in a short term Shanghai real estate market is a non-equilibrium market. A mathematical model was created to certify the above point. With the aid of non-equilibrium theory and model, it is concluded that under the stable price conditions, i.e., the increase in housing price is within the range, the ratio of supply to demand should maintain at a level. Based on this thesis, the ratio is define, thus, a range increase in housing price can be expected.these conclusion can help government macro-administration.In order to solve the existing problem in Shanghai real estate market, Learning from the experience of developed countries and regions can help Shanghai municipal authority address the problem. The municipal government should monitor closely its land supply and housing construction, and use policies and regulations to direct real estate development and consumption. The developers and buyers, as the suppliers and consumers, The developers should adjust developing strategies, the buyers buying behaviours . Both of them become rational investors and consumers.Lastly, conclusions were drawn and some recommendations for the further work were also brought up.