The Game Analysis Of China’s Trade Friction After The Finance Cirsis Era

2008financial crisis sweeping the globe, the world economy tumbled tragically,trade protectionism once again took the opportunity to rebirth, in the new round oftrade protection war, our country was the first to bear the brunt, foreign tradeenvironment are deteriorating. Although the arrival of the era of after financial crisisindicate that the world economy will meet a new opportunity for development, butChina’s current circumstances, it did not escape from the trade melee, the export tradeis suffering from a heavy blow in the event of a flood of trade friction. From2009to2010, the world launched trade friction more than180cases to China, involving avalue as high as20billion dollars. In addition, the trade friction we experienced afterthe finance crisis shows some new character different from the past. We took the eraof after finance crisis as research background, based on the statistic analysis of ourcurrent trade, and used the game theory to establish a short-term incompleteinformation dynamic game model and a long-term repeated game model, theorizedfrom the short-term model that the causes and results of trade friction launched bydeveloped and developing countries, and the long-term model that how would thetrade protectionism be developing, and whether China would improve the status quothat faced with frequent trade friction.We deduced by the models that in the short-term, it will bring China’sexport-oriented enterprises to reduce exports and lower profits if the foreign countryto take protection measures, but whether the importing country itself is able toachieve expected profits and goals, as some objective factors of uncertainty, itbelongs to probability problem. In the long-term, no matter developed or developingcountries, if the continued to provoke trade friction, even form of trade protectionism,as long as interest rates can meet certain conditions and our country to take retaliatorypenalties, then the trade will result in both huge losses, and will be not conducive tothe development of bilateral trade, long-term friendship. Practice-basedconsiderations, the article on China’s trade friction for the corresponding case studiesand practical description, and made some inspiration.Finally, this paper on the basis of theoretical analysis, from improve the businessfrom responding enthusiasm and ability, establishing bilateral trade early warningmechanism, adjustment of product export structure, perfect and use of WTO trade rules and other aspects to put forward proposals to reduce the frequency of occurrenceof trade friction in China, enhance the ability to resolve trade frictions, promotehealthy and rapid development of foreign trade.