Study On Ecological Land Change And The Driving Force In Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region

Urban development has enlarged the modification of natural resources and has changed land use and land cover patterns. Due to the rapid course of urbanization, the haphazard growth of major cities is one of the challenging situations in front of any area. As unorganized urbanization is becoming the major problem, it requires the immediate solution for sustainable development of area land use. It’s undoubtedly true that the haphazard growth of major cities will occupy more and more farmland, limited by the policy named "accounting for one-one", urbanization and farmland will occupy eco-land more and more frequently. According to the high service value on eco-land and LUCC ecological-environmental effects during urbanization in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region, it’s worth finding out the transmutation pattern and how the transmutation happens in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region.This study applied System analysis method、Landscape indexes analyze、ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis)approach and SRM (Spatial Regression Model) to analysis quantitatively and model the regional eco-land use changes in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region from1990to2005. Here are the main conclusions:(1) From1990to2005, construction land had an increased area, while eco-land use types were in adverse. From perspective of the eco-land changes of overall landscape configuration and general characteristics, all kinds of ecological landscape type present a little scope changes, it means that no one absolutely dominants the whole trend of ecological landscape changes between fragmentation and aggregation, though the fragmentation trend is slightly obvious, which is the main tendency of the ecological landscape type changing, I think. Because it is closely linked with the economy development degree of study area, the ecological landscape type will change more and more sharply.(2) From general spatial characteristics, forest’s Moran’s I value from period I (1990-2000) of0.2937reduced to0.1583in the period II (2000-2005),and grass land’s Moran’s I value from period I of0.2937reduced to0.1583in the period II, telling us that the spatial integration of forest land and grass land are fading. However from whole characteristics, Moran’s I value changed from-0.0487to0.1180during the two periods, it means that total ecological land changes present integrated regionally. (3) With respect to driving force, natural driving force is the relatively stable one among many influencing factors to eco-land transmutation, it works by accumulation, while human driving force is relatively active and significant. As far as spatial lag model be concerned, among6chosen factors, GDP per capita and the increase of population density are the most significant driving factors, obviously, here is a conflict among economic development、urbanization and eco-land using, and what’s more we can explain by means of spatial lag model is that the correlation between the increase of population density、agricultural population、Agriculture working population and the eco-land changes is negative.