The Competitiveness Evaluation Of Chinese Logistics And Econometric Analysis Of Its Conductive Effect

As the booming development of The Third Industry，the Logistics is playing amore and more important role in economic development. As a result, Logistics isbecoming a hot issue in the academic circles. This paper focuses and conductsempirical researches about the influence factors, efficiency and competitiveness ofLogistics. Then, the paper gives econometric analysis about conductive effect ofLogistics.In the development of Logistics, input factors are important elements. Firstly, weselect three input indicators: the fixed assets investment of Logistics, road density andthe number of cars. The input indicators are to characterize the influencial elements ofLogistics. By analyzing and constructing the spacial panel model, we discover anobvious spatial correlation between the input factors and Logistics added value. TheLogistics has an evident network property whose development mainly depends on thenetwork of transportation. The changes of input indicators will generate remarkablespace spillovers by transport routes. Secondly, we use the method of PrincipalComponent Analysis to extract three principal components reflecting themacro-economic environment, the level of information, fixed assets investment andprofitability on the logistics industry of China. According to the scores of differentprincipal components and the comprehensive ranking of Logistics in31provinces(municipalities) of China, we divide them into three categories: the strong area oflogistics’ competitiveness, the midstream area of logistics’ competitiveness and thevulnerable area of logistics’ competitiveness. The strong region has superiorconditions of economy and infrastructure; the midstream area is constrained by thelevel of information, while the vulnerable area is affected by dual constraints of theinformation level and labor productivity. There are significant differences betweenthe various regions on the development of Logistics. Finally, we apply three-stageDEA model to measure the efficiency of China’s Logistics. By estimating, it shows that there are significant differences on efficiency levels among Chinese eightdistricts. Seaboard areas and coastal areas of the Yangtze River and the Yellow Riverrely on convenient coastal transportation, river transportation and a variety ofadvantages, their logistics industry develops rapidly. While the Logistics in thenortheastern, inland areas such as northwestern and southwestern, develop slowly dueto the constraints of terrain factors and economic levels.This paper begins analyzing the conductive effect of Logistics from theindustrial associate effect, industrial spreading effect and the relationship between theLogistics and economy. Based Input-output Analysis Method, we find that Logisticsconsumes itself very little but relies on the second industry heavily, that is theLogistics must rely on other industries in order to develop itself. The impact ofLogistics on national economy is heavier than that on Logistics itself. Second, thispaper uses Dynamic Panel Data Model to analyze the interaction between theLogistics and the three industries. Logistics has small positive impact on the first andsecond industries even does negative effect on the third industry. Lastly, this paperuses PVAR model to explain the relationship between Logistics growth and economicgrowth. The relationship between the economic growth and Logistics added valuegrowth is mainly the one-way leading influence. Briefly, the development ofLogistics is very important to economic growth and vigorously developing logisticshas long-term influence on the national economy.Therefore, in order to promoteeconomic growth the development of the logistics industry should further adjust theinternal industry structure and market structure, access to healthy and sustaineddevelopment.