| The international dry bulk shipping, constituting over 1/3 of the total world marine quantity, is nearly a perfect competition market, which is easily subjected to world political, military, economic, and natural factors. In 2008, global dry bulk shipping quantity grew 4% while there was a 3% reduction in 2009, the first negative growth in recent 10 years.Handysize bulk carrier is a significant part of global dry bulk shipping market. As handysize bulk carrier can carry a variety of dry cargoes, adapt well to relatively inferior ports, and be operated flexibly, it displays good capacity guarding against risk, and has become a concern and development priority of shipping companies. Meanwhile, there still remain various variables and uncertainties in shipping market. How to establish appropriate handysize fleet operating strategies in a shipping market of fierce competition and sharp fluctuations is an important and practical work.This paper, based on the above mentioned background, carries the research. First of all, it will make a brief introduction on global dry bulk shipping market from market form, transportation cargoes, shipping capacity, freight and development regularity, summarize the main characteristics of handysize transportation market, and review its market conditions in recent years according to freight index. Then, based on the combination forecast model of linear trend extrapolation, brown single parameter exponential smoothing and gray prediction, future trend of handysize fleet market will be analyzed. After that, handysize fleet operating strategies are put forward, including joint operation, fleet adjustment, market competition, risk management and diversified development. |
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