Research On The Fluctuation And Forecast Of World Dry Bulk Carrier Demolitions

With the rapid development of the shipping industry and world economy, the demolitions of ship are also increasing every year. Now, the total quantity of the world merchant have been more than 850 million DWT, annual vessel decommissions have been up to 3,000 million DWT. If such great vessel decommissions can not be processed in time, it will bring serious environment problem, market economy and the protection of marine environment all need ship recycling industry. This paper mainly studies dry bulk carrier demolitions, dry bulk carrier demolitions is the major indexe of ship recycling industry t.The purpose of this paper is to find the variation rules of dry bulk carrier demolitions, draw the main reasons for the abnormal fluctuation, and predict the future fluctuation trend in 3 years. So, firstly this paper briefly introduces dry bulk carrier demolitions, puts forward six fluctuation parameters about dry bulk carrier demolitions, introduced the influencing factors of dry bulk carrier demolitions from the qualitative angle. Secondly, this paper analyses the characteristics and abnormal fluctuations cause of dry bulk carrier demolitions, on this basis, we study the formation mechanism of fluctuations, then, this paper establish forecasting model with time series analysis method, and improve it by joining abnormal factors. Finally, based on the prediction results, Puts forward some opinions and suggestions for our ship recycling industry development.This paper studies based on long-span dry bulk carrier demolitions statistical data, system analysis and predict the fluctuation of dry bulk carrier demolitions, Help enterprises to know ship breaking industry development and the future development trend of a period of time, help enterprises to understand market demand, control risk, adjust enterprise positioning, enhance enterprise competition ability, And to a certain extent make up the blank in the research of ship breaking industry fluctuation. Provide useful reference for the future study.