Sensitivity Analysis Of Joint Distribution’s Cost Influence Factor For Automobile Spare Parts

Occident automotive market’s mature experience shows that, with the increasingly fierce market competition, the vehicle’s profit has reached its lowest point and is hard to have a breakthrough, but after-sales market has been becoming the bulk of profits in the future automotive market, which will account for more than one third of the total profits of the enterprise. China’s auto market has become the world’s largest auto producer and consumer after years of development, corresponding to the after-market competition also having become fierce. Joint ventures and own brands are both in competition for the market share and cultivating their own consumer groups. Therefore, emphasizing on after-sales market, rational planning of spare parts channel, it will has a very important strategic meaning.Based on the investigation, survey, and summarizing the literature of domestic and foreign research, paper introduces the current domestic and international spare parts market supply and demand characteristics, circulation patterns, development status, and analysis of China’s auto industry structure and layout, as well as the production model of the main vehicle enterprises. Explain under the environment of multi-multi style layout of supply node and OEMs dominant mode of supply channel, spare parts supply system has many problems. Its main focus on customer response efficiency, inventory control, transportation costs and return no-load and so on. As to these ills, paper raise that, in front of the circulation system that dealer inventory to be divided nodes, multi-enterprise or different brands under same company implement joint distribution, co-operate with third-party logistics companies, so as to promote information exchange, integrate of logistics resources, reduce the transportation and warehousing costs, shorten response time and enhance market competitiveness.It will have different merger patterns when the goods that need for joint distribution are collected, including three main types that stock merger, vehicle load capacity merger and transit point merger. So, for the different enterprises, we need to identify the very joint distribution model before practice. And then, under the premise of without lowering the original performance standards of enterprises, reference to the systematic dynamics to analyze and draw cause and effect diagram, identify the positive and negative feedback loop, and then identify efficiency and cost impact factors, at the same time basing on those factors to build the joint distribution cost model, quantize operating cost and find the optimal joint distribution program. On this basis, analyze the model to identify the main factors affecting the results, and make sensitivity analysis to find out the most sensitive factor affecting the cost. In order to make the results more realistic, based on the traditional method, introduction of fluctuation range and probability of sensitive factors, combined the sensitivity analysis with the probability and statistics analysis, so that we get a more accurate result.