The Valuation Research Of Stock Intrinsic Value Based On The Analysis Of The Fuzzy Number

The intrinsic value of the stock is dependent on the fundamental information and the future development of the listed company. Because the growth of the company is dynamic and the growth influence the intrinsic value of the company, the valuation of stock intrinsic value appears some uncertainties. To research the valuation issue of stock intrinsic value, in this paper, we introduce some related concepts about fuzzy number and analyze the stock intrinsic value by using fuzzy number. By analyzing the growth of the listed company and the risk preference coefficient of investors, we get the intrinsic value expressed as triangular fuzzy number C=(a,c,b) and the membership function is μC(P).To explain the influence of the market factors to the stock intrinsic value, we will research the character of the market speculation price. In this paper, we research the influence of Monetary Aggregates to the stock price by using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. We find that Monetary Aggregates is the key factor affecting the trend of the stock price, but not the only crucial factor. The influence of Monetary Aggregates on the average stock price in the stock market depends on the Macro-Economy expectation of the investors. Considering the influence of market speculative factors, we research the speculation price of market by using fuzzy number. We get the market speculation price expressed as trapezoidal fuzzy number P=(m,m,M,M) and the membership function isμp(p).According to economic theories, the stock price fluctuates around the intrinsic value. With analyzing the intrinsic value and the market price, we get the investment strategy based on analysis of fuzzy number. Based on the risk tolerance, the investor will preset a risk thresholdλ(0<λ<1). If the market price p meets the condition ofμC(p)≥λ, it means the market price approximates the intrinsic value and we should keep holding. If p meetsμC(p)<λ and p<c, it means the market price is undervalued and we should buy the stock gradually. If p meetsμc(p)<λ and p> c, it means the market price is overv alued and we should sell the stock gradually. Our research results show that the risk threshold λ influences investor’s required rate of return. When the risk threshold λ increases, investor’s required rate of return reduces. When the risk threshold A, decreases, investor’s required rate of return rises.