| Kazakhstan is the largest trading partner of China in Central Asia, after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was founded in2001,China and Kazakhstan, being at different stages of economic development with large differences and obvious complementarity to each other in industrial structure, resource endowments and trade structure, conducted a wide range of economic and trade cooperation in various fields; the two sides cooperated with each other in large infrastructure fields such as energy, mineral, electric power and railway and the like.The bilateral trade had entered a rapid stage of development, the bilateral trade volume was showing a rising trend and the trade partnership became Increasingly close.In2010, China became the second largest trading partner of Kazakhstan only behind Russia. However, china’s foreign trade to Kazakhstan only accounted for less than4%of the total scale of China’s foreign trade and in2010, Kazakhstan’s per capita GDP reached＄8,939.9, which which make china see a huge potential market in Kazakhstan.What’s more, the financial tsunami in2008from the United States makes the Chinese government deeply feel that China’s export trade, overly relying on the few Western developed economies, is easily subject to the influence of external markets, which is not good for the healthy and sustainable development of China’s foreign trade. So China has to change the present trend of over centralized export market, follow the strategy of diversifying export market and actively explore the central Asia and Africa markets.According to a general review of the researchs at home and abroad, it is found that the domestic researches at present stage are still stuck in the analysis of the commodity structure of Sino-Kazakh itself, mainly making use of a series of indices measuring the trade structure, such as the revealed comparative advantage index, the trade integration index, trade competitiveness index and the trade complementarity index and so on. Based on these indices, the domestic researches have the quantitative analysis of the bilateral trade structure between China and Kazakhstan, which only analyzes the commodity structure itself and the conclusions of them are almost the same, namely, there is a great complementary on the bilateral trade. However,they do not study the relationship between the commodity structure and bilateral trade flows.The paper attempts to explore the relationship between China’s export volume to Kazakhstan and the optimized export structure of China to Kazakhstan. By offering the suggestion to optimize the export structure of China to Kazakhstan, to certain degree, this paper hopes to give the direction to the future Sino-Kazakh bilateral trade cooperation.Firstly, this paper states the current study situation at home and abroad on commodity trade structure, bilateral trade commodity structure, relationship between commodity trade structure and trade flows.The second chaper analyzes the development situation as well as its characteristics of Sino-Kazakh bilateral trade and divides it into two stages, namely,1992to2001and after2002. The period from1992to2001is the initial stage of the bilateral trade cooperation.After2002, the bilateral trade cooperation enters into the rapid development.At the same time, it also states the characteristics of the bilateral economic and trade relationship in the bilateral trade volume which show that the bilateral trade volume rises increasingly since China and Kazakhstan formally established diplomatic relations in1992; China is Kazakhstan’s main trade partner but not vice versa; statistics of Sino-Kazakh bilateral trade volume are different and trading conditions are not the same. Characteristics of the bilateral trade methods are that frontier trade develops quickly; tourism trade constantly develops; International engineering contracting business of China to Kazakhstan develops in a constant way, which drives the export of the related engineering machinery.Chaper three analyzes Sino-Kazakh bilateral commodity structure. From the structure of China’s importation of commodities from Kazakhstan and the structure of China’s exportation commodities to Kazakhstan, this chapter analyzes the change of Sino-Kazakh bilateral commodity structure and comes to the conclusion that commodities China imports from Kazakhstan are basically minerals and raw materials and China’s importation of commodities from Kazakhstan remains basically unchanged.However, the structure of China’s exportation commodities to Kazakhstan shows that importation of construction engineering machinery such as drilling machine, boring machine, piling machine and snow machine, telephone and wireless communication equipment as well as data exchange equipment expands constantly. The commodities China exports to Kazakhstan are diversified. It also analyzes the factors of the chnages in Sino-Kazakh bilateral commodity structure which are adjustment of Kazakhstan’s demand structure, differences in the levels of economic development between the two countries and the promotion of western development strategy.Then this paper reanalyzes Sino-Kazakh bilateral trade commodity structure by using trade integration index, revealed comparative advantage index and export similarity index, from which it finds that the commodity trade between China and Kazakhstan has strong complementarity fully improving the fact of the constant bilateral trade development since their establishment of diplomatic relations.Using a various analysis of the indices, we find that due to the differences in the factor endowments, the levels of economic development and industrial structures between the two countries, comparative advantages of resource-intensive products, labor-intensive products, the technology-intensive products are also ovbiously different; their respective comparative advantages of different products show the dynamic change of the trend which reflects the dynamic changes in factor endowments of two countries and the optimization and upgrading of their industrial structure. There is no doubt that the development of Sino-Kazakh bilateral trade will lead their respective comparative advantages to the full development.Chapter four has an empirical analysis of bilateral trade structure and trade flows. Through the collecting the Sino-Kazakh trade data of the United Nations’commodity trade database from1992to2010and cointegration analysis, this chapter analyzes the relationship between the export trade volume of China to Kazakhstan and the optimization of the export trade structure of China to Kazakhstan from an empirical point of view.The paper collects trade data of China and kazakstan from1992to2010,the data is from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database, from the empirical point of view,using cointegration analysis analyses trade volume of China’s export to Kazakhstan and China’s Export Structure in Kazakhstan. The empirical findings is that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship existing between the export structure optimization of China to Kazakstan and the export trade of China to kazakstan. In the long term, optimizing the structure of export commodities of China to Kazakhstan will produce positive effects on export trade volume of China to Kazakhstan, namely, export commodity structure of China to kazakstan optimized by one percentage point will bring an increase of0.38655percentage points on export trade volume of China to Kazakhstan.Finally,according to the above empirical analysis conclusion, the article raises some corresponding policy proposals of the development of Sino-Kazakh bilateral trade relations from the two levels of government and enterprises from the view of optimizing commodities trade structure of China and Kazakhstan to enhance bilateral trade relations. |
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