Application Research On "Butterfly Effect" Of Mircrobolg Comunication&Public Opinion Guidance

Now our country is in the social transition and obvious contradiction period, conflict of interest intensities, emergencies occur frequently,the rapid development of microblogs puts forward a severe test to government departments and social organizations capable of responding to emergencies and the effect of public opinion guidance. How to explore the formation mechanism of microblog communication power, how to grasp the law of public opinion formation in microblog, and how to guide correctly positive public opinion, is the current industry problem which needs to be settled.This thesis studies mainly about the formation and communication mechanism of microblog "butterfly effect" and the role in public opinion application.First, the author will card the microblog’s development history and summarize the microblog’s characteristics and functions. Then, point out that the microblog communication system is a typical chaotic system after analyzing the communication characteristics of the microblog’s system.Third,dissect the microblog "butterfly effect" formation and communication rule after analyzing the initial condition sensitivity, initial value deviation formation, the influence of kinetic energy superposition and consubstantiality resonance, the fractal communication and iterative feedback, and put forward the universal disordered communication model and the concept of the "information cell". Combined with typical network event at home and abroad in recent years, it is indicated that the "butterfly effect" in the power of microblog communication process.Finally, according to the "butterfly effect" forming communication mechanism, propose countermeasures and suggestions of the media public opinion guidance in the new condition from five aspects such as the initial condition sensitivity, initial value deviation formation, fission conditions, communication path and the effect emerging.The five countermeasures and suggestions are:From the source control, to reduce the sensitivity of initial conditions, prevent "contactor" and eliminate "flash point":From the magnetic field control, to guide the opinion leaders’ direction, reduce "overlaying" and block "resonance";Starting from the attitude, to reduce the event secondary fermentation rate,avoid "fractal" and prevent "iterative"; Starting from the communication skills, to realize the official media and network media interaction, prevent "emerging" and cause "shock";Starting from the media literacy, enhance self-checking ability of the communication subject, improve "self-control" and reduce "following blindly".