The Research On Unconventional Emergency Scenario Model And Generation Based On Knowledge Element

In recent years, the frequency of unconventional emergency is rising, such as the Wenchuan earthquake, snow disaster, which gave the huge damage of a great life and property, and has attracted the attention of the government and the scholars. As the unconventional emergency has the characteristics of the uncertainty of evolution and unpredictability, the traditional response "predict-response" pattern lost its role, the pattern of "scenario-response" has been recognized by the extensive emergency scholars in the field. Under the guidance of this model, the paper builds the scenario model and researches the method of scenario generation, which perfects the theoretical system of "scenario-response" pattern.This paper build the scenario model, represents the model and research the method of scenario generation based on the reviews of scenarios in the field of unconventional emergencies and the reviews of "scenario-response" model. Firstly, the paper systematically reviews the theory of knowledge element, scenario and "scenario-response" and the status quo of systemic study of emergencies. Secondly, the paper analyzes the unconventional scenario elements, elements attribute and elements relationship, then builds the scenario model based on the knowledge elements theory. It is an innovation to represent the scenario model based on the knowledge elements model, and conducive to simulate generate the nature objective things by computer. Thirdly, the paper proposes the methods of simulation generator of the unconventional emergency based on the scenario model, and the method to resolve the problems of the missing data and unreasonable data. Finally, the paper gives an example of oil pipeline explosion, and verifies the model and the methods.This paper proposes the representation of scenario model and the methods of scenario generator of unconventional emergency, which provide the experimental support for the simulation of unconventional emergency, and help to research the pattern of "scenario-response" model.