In The Late Qing Dynasty Zhili Cotton Yield Estimation-1851～1911

From the beginning of the Qing Dynasty, the cotton textile industry in the government promoted the emergence and rapid development. Arrived after the Opium War, not only the original old cotton producing areas have the further development, but many emerging cotton producing areas are beginning to appear. According to statistics the author, in the late Qing Dynasty Zhili has a total of56cotton producing areas, the traditional family cotton textile industry has developed to the peak. Its basically behave in cotton yield, cotton textile technology improvement, the improvement of labor productivity, labor input and cotton market expansion. While measuring the traditional cotton textile industry development is an important indicator of cotton yield, to more accurately estimate the later Qing Zhili cotton yield, then the calculation of cotton yield method is the first to address an important issue. So in this paper, the author mainly uses the production method, complemented by consumption method to calculate the yield of cotton in the late Qing dynasty.The first is the peasant cotton textile labor time estimation. On the basis of some typical cotton producing area of cotton textile industry labor time records, combined with Li Bo heavy et al on Jiangnan region countrywoman every year in the cotton textile industry labor time estimates, more scientific estimate of the late Qing Dynasty Zhili’s annual engaged in cotton textile industry of the time for160days.The second cotton textile industry labor productivity estimation. The author from the spinning and weaving of these two aspects, in the late Qing Dynasty in cotton textile spinning and weaving efficiency efficiency is studied in detail, the spinning and weaving efficiency combined, the estimation of the farmers in the Qianlong emperor Xianfeng Guangxu period, and the cotton textile industry labor productivity. The author estimated result is, the farmers in the Qianlong period of annual production of cotton of27horse, Xianfeng Period to35horsepower, Guangxu period is increased to48horse around. Visible, from the Qianlong to Guangxu period, the cotton textile industry labor productivity has been improved steadily. Third cotton textile industry workers (i.e. textile households) estimation. Related to this aspect of the estimation of the ratio of labor time and labor productivity are estimated to be much more difficult. The specific approach is:first of all, from Cao Shuji to the palace of Qing Dynasty the population on the basis of research results, on the cotton producing areas in the late Qing Dynasty the population estimate. Population accuracy directly affects the accuracy of estimation of textile households; second is the textile door estimation method. The author’s approach to a state or county as a basic unit, the first assumes that the county in Xianfeng, Tongzhi, Guangxu and Xuantong each period of textile textile households accounted for the proportion of the total number of county are the same, and then according to this county cotton textile industry specific records to obtain the state and County households total household textile the specific proportion, finally combined with the county in Xianfeng, Tongzhi, Guangxu and Xuantong each period of actual population to obtain the county textile.Fourth is the cotton yield calculation. In the house on the basis of the cotton producing areas, as a unit to calculate. Mainly consists of two steps:the first step is in the historical records on the basis of detailed description of the cotton producing areas of cotton textile industry in the development process; the two is the first step in the basis, combined with the cotton textile industry’s labor time, labor productivity and textile number calculates various cotton region in the late Qing Dynasty cotton yield.Finally, the author will be estimated from all cotton production cotton production, cotton local consumption and foreign sales and textile number data using table form, sum up and summarize. The author concludes the traditional domestic cotton textile industry after the Opium War decades development is very rapid, Cotton production from1840to39050000to64580000at the end of Qing Dynasty when the horse, and cotton sales from18401000000horsepower increased to10000000horsepower above when in the late Qing dynasty. However, this development is still based on traditional labor inputs based on. Cotton textile industry labor productivity is improved, but no qualitative leap. Therefore, the traditional home of cotton textile industry in its peak, in the foreign and domestic cotton yarn cotton textiles mechanism under the impact of the gradual decline, until finally quit the stage of history.