| Purpose:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Brucellosis and its dynamic variations of Zibo city from1954to2011and the influencing factor of rising Brucellosis in1990s, predict the epidemic trend of human Brucellosis epidemic in Zibo city,and precisely master the disease prevention and control situation,scientifically evaluation the effectiveness of Brucellosis prevention and control measures. To provide practical basis for continuous improvement of Brucellosis prevention and control strategy in Zibo City. Continuously improve the prevention and control measures, effectively consolidate Brucellosis prevention and control achievements of Zibo.Methods:With the reported human Brucellosis outbreaks data from1954to2011,the human infection survey information from1958to2011,Brucellosis patient record survey from1989to2011,Cattle infections and the survey of active immunization and quarantine information between animals, and some other relevant information, using SPSS19.0method to have statistical analysis by the method of weighted arithmetic average, forecast Brucellosis epidemic trend of Zibo city.Results:There are a total of380cases reported human Brucellosis from1954to2011in Zibo City and the average annual incidence rate is0.2512/100000,of which37years from1954to2011outbreaks have been reported, and years that is no outbreaks reported concentrated between the year1955to1988. The average annual incidence rate of Brucellosis from1989～2011is2.01times than that in 1954～1988. Two periods onset frequency difference have statistically significant (X2=36.51,P<0.01).Currently, Epidemic is still serious in historical disease area, new disease area is constantly emerging, Brucellosis epidemic upward trend in Zibo City is consistent with the country and some provinces and cities, but the upward trend is earlier throughout the country, and not entirely consistent volatility with some reports. Brucellosis cases were distributed in118villages of of56towns of five areas and three counties in Zibo, and showing a gradually increasing trend in recent years. It mainly concentrated in the Zichuan, Linzi district, where local residents is given priority with agriculture and animal husbandry. The number of reported cases has also increased in Zhangdian, zhoucun and Huantai, due to the development of the cows, goats and aquaculture. The reported Brucellosis cases showed that there is a certain family aggregation in Zibo, and the outbreaks is increasing in recent years.Statistical analysis of283cases from1989to2011showed gender, age distribution accords with the pathogenesis of Brucellosis. But the age distribution of Brucellosis is changing between1989～2002and2003～2011. For people who are younger than40years old, the number of cases in2003～2011is less than that in1989～2002while the result is contrary to the above for those older than40years old. Time of onset distribution is consistent with the sheep Brucellosis epidemic characteristics of bacteria, reached the peak in June, accounted for15.55%of total cases, and cases were mainly distributed in May～July, a total of177cases, accounting for62.54%of the total number of cases. From the statistical analysis of162cases infection route from1989to2011in Zibo, the mainly possible infection means are still farming, grazing sheep and slaughter livestock as before, accounted for70.99%and11.11%, respectively. It is worth mentioning that eight cases of patients with infection due to drinking raw goat’s milk in recent years(4.94%of the total number of cases).From1958to2011, a cumulative total of39361persons carry out Serological active surveillance in Zibo City, of which SAT test positive591, the average positive rate was1.50%, combined with clinical symptoms and epidemiological findings confirmed296cases of Brucellosis patients, the diagnosis rate of50.08%, accounting for77.89%of the total number of cases. Human active monitoring was not carried out during13years.From1958to 2011,a cumulative total of140,154livestock accepted serology quarantine detection quarantine positive in1162, and the positive rate was0.83%while no quarantine work was carried out in16years from1958to2011. The cumulative immunization livestock number is884,900in Zibo City, and the average annual immune density is20%to30%,while no livestock immunization was carried out in29years. A total of21Brucellosis bacteria was identified,of which19sheep Ⅲ,2sheep Ⅰ. The incidence of Brucellosis for Zibo city from2012to2016is predicted to be0.5991/100000,0.6346/100000,0.6579/100000,0.6704/100000, and0.6764/100000, separately, according to the formula, yt=(5yt-1+4yt-2+3yt-3+2yt-4+yt-5)/(1+2+3+4+5).Conclusion:A great deal of successful experience has been accumulated of Brucellosis prevention and control work from1970s to the1980s, while epidemic situation had been controlled effectively in Zibo.5counties met the ministerial control standard,and2counties met the ministerial stability control district standards. But in recent years, Brucellosis epidemic outbreaks again in Zibo city,due to livestock breeding patterns change,frequent trading of livestock and livestock products,inadequate prevention and control measures in live stocks and some other reasons. If there is not intensify control efforts, the epidemic will be further expanded. In order to fundamentally completely eliminate the source of infection of Brucellosis, clean the focus of infection, and ultimately achieve epidemic control target of Zibo, we must focus on three popular links:eliminate Brucellosis infection source, control the transmission and protect vulnerable populations. We must further establish and improve the mechanism system, materialize the defense league truly, gradually achieve systematization management legalization and standardization. |
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