The Space Popular Features And Predict Incidence Of Brucellosis Pathogenic In2006-2010in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Objective (1) The application of description epidemiological analysis demonstrate thatthe Inner Mongolia autonomous region the trend and level distribution;(2) The applicationof GIS software and R software technology reveals the Inner Mongolia autonomous regionin2006-2010the demonstrate that the spatial distribution characteristics and spacegathered sex;(3) Choose the proper prediction method predict the incidence of a disease.Square method using traditional epidemiological methods demonstrate that the descriptionof the three distribution between the level and distribution; By using GIS software with anannual incidence demonstrate that the map and R software space related statistical analysis;Application of the grey system GM (1,1) model, the incidence of the brucella make aprediction and evaluation. Method Using traditional epidemiological methodsdemonstrate that the description of the three distribution between the level and distribution;By using GIS software with an annual incidence demonstrate that the map and R softwarespace related statistical analysis; Application of the grey system GM (1,1) model, theincidence of the brucella make a prediction and evaluation. Results (1) The incidenceof disease focus on the age35to45years old, between incidence of; Gender mainly maleis given priority to, the men and women sex ratio of1.22:1; Come on time is mainlyconcentrated in June, incidence of; Higher incidence area mainly for tin LinHaocharacteristic, wulanchabu, the hulunbuir, respectively the average incidence of34.83/10thousand,10.77/10thousand,7.09/10thousand. According to the classification methodsstatistics, Inner Mongolia autonomous region demonstrate high incidence area has three,accounting for25%of the whole autonomous region; High incidence area not; Mediumincidence area1,8.33%; The remaining66.67%area is low incidence areas;(2) The resultsshow that the demonstrate that the spatial agglomeration phenomenon does not exist.(3)Through the GM (1,1) model predict incidence demonstrate that a rising trend, the fittingaccuracy test shows that the model and the forecast results are good.Conclusion Theanalysis process column articles, image illustrates the practicability of GIS software and Rsoftware. evaluate the result of the prediction, proved that the credibility of the modelapplication of GM (1,1).