Study On Traffic Demand Forecasting And Evaluation Of Regional Expressway Network

The construction and development of expressway has made great achievement in china during past20years. The system of modern road and transportation representative by expressway has promoted the development of economy effectively in this period, as well as efficient service system. As the planning of national expressway implementing, the planning and construction of regional expressway are proceeding in many provinces. The development of has been marching in another high level stage. With the expressway forming network and large scale, the social benefit of which has appearing increasingly. It is of important theory value and directive significance by studying on social benefit of regional expressway network, which is favorable for making planning of regional expressway network and advancing the harmony sustainable development of transportation and social economy.This article hereby is to study Jinan-Dongying expressway so as to provide some decision-making references. Jinan-Dongying expressway starts from the north of Ji nan which extends eastward to Jiyang, Huimin county of Binzhou, Bincheng district of Binzhou, Lijin County of Dongying, connecting to the port of Dongying expressway.This expressway full-length is163.3kilometers,which is the important component of Shandong province highway"5418" of the network, directly connects to Jinan, Binzhou, Dongying and the important industrial and mining enterprises and tourist attractions of the Yellow River Delta, as well as a political、economic and cultural significance highway.Studies the traffic forecast of Jinan-Dongying expressway with four-stage method,which is the basis for economic evaluation.lt illustrates the idea and method of traffic forecast,ascertaining the Origin Destination (OD) survey method.Secondly,it divides the traffic zone,checking and testing the OD survey of the base year.Finally,it completes the traffic generation,traffic distribution and traffic assignment in order to predict the traffic volume of Jinan-Dongying expressway.Economic evaluation and social evaluation are done on the Jinan-Dongying expressway. According to the actual situation, choosing the national economic evaluation methods, to analyze and argue the economic benefits of the project. The results of the analysis is feasible, and having strong ability to resist risks. At the same time evaluating three aspects of the social impact analysis, project and social compatibility analysis, and the social risk and countermeasures analysis, demonstrates that the project can promote the development of regional economy, increase local people’s employment opportunities,and improve the people’s living level.