The Prediction Of Seismic Damage And Casualties Of Primary And Secondary School Buildings In Mountains Of Southern Shaanxi

Earthquake damage prediction research has been carried out at home and abroad formany years, and formed relatively mature prediction methods and theoretical systems.Earthquake damage prediction is widely used to assess the degree of seismic hazard and thesocial impact before the earthquake, rapid assessment of loss after the earthquake andearthquake insurance. It has played an important role in minimizing casualties and propertylosses and rebuilding their homes after the earthquake.Primary and secondary school buildings have collapsed in a large area in WenchuanEarthquake, causing heavy casualties and severe property damage. It has aroused extensiveconcern in the community, the problem of how to improve the security of school buildingsmust be solved. In order to improve the security of primary and secondary school buildings,the government carries out the “schoolhouse safety project for primary and secondaryschools” in nationwide. Scientific prediction of the earthquake damage and earthquakecasualty loss of school buildings provides the basic information of “schoolhouse safetyproject for primary and secondary schools”.According to the theoretical analysis, take the wall shear strength as resistance index,through the survey of primary and secondary school buildings of masonry structure inmountains of southern Shaanxi, reference the prediction equation of earthquake damage index,get the earthquake damage index of school buildings of masonry structure under differentseismic intensity, count the resistance level of school buildings of masonry structure under theappropriate seismic intensity, predict the earthquake damage matrix of monomer schoolbuilding of masonry structure, take the earthquake damage matrix after reinforcement as acomparison.As to the prediction formula, forms a new earthquake prediction formula of casualtiescombined with the results of the earthquake damage prediction. Verify the scientific of theformula, compared the numbers of the calculation of previous earthquake casualties with thenumbers of actual casualties. Successfully predicted the number of earthquake casualties inthe county primary and secondary schools by the earthquake prediction formula.