Analysis On Optimization Trends Of Shanghai Marine Industrial Structure

"Twelfth Five-Year Plan"(2011-2015) is the period for Shanghai tospeed up the "the Four First"(to take the lead in changing the developmentmode, to take the lead in enhancing the independent innovation capability,to take the lead in promoting the reform and opening up, to take the lead inbuilding a socialist harmonious society), to accelerate the construction of"Four Centers"(the International Economic Center, the InternationalFinancial Center, the International Shipping Center, the International TradeCenter), to enhance the marine industry in the proportion of Shanghai’seconomic development.This paper analyzes the marine industry in Shanghai from the staticanalysis and the dynamic analysis. Static analysis includes:1. Shorelineresources, distribution and economic use of beach.2. Shanghai port andharbor resources’ utilization analysis.3. Marine economy density analysisof Shanghai coastline. Dynamic analysis includes:1. Shanghai marineindustry structure analysis, including the composition of the threeindustries, Shanghai employment of related to the sea industry, Shanghaimarine industrial structure deviation.2. The status of three industries of theShanghai marine industry, including the Shanghai marine primary industrystructure analysis, mainly about marine fishing and mariculture. Shanghaimarine secondary industry structure analysis, including marine powerindustry, offshore oil and gas industry, and marine shipbuilding industry.Shanghai marine tertiary industry structure analysis, mainly about themarine transportation and coastal tourism.3. Shanghai marine environmentmainly about the environment of the East China Sea and the Yangtze Riverestuary.This paper mainly uses the Gray System Theory, which is founded byProf. Julong Deng, to analyze the marine industrial structure of Shanghai.Grey System Theory is used to study the uncertainty system, which hascharacters of "partial information is known, the other is unknown" and"little samples","small information". This theory can abstract the valuableinformation from "partial known information", calculate the correctdescription and effective monitoring for the running behavior and evolution,so as to achieve the exact description for the uncertainty system and toanalyze, evaluate, model, forecast, make decision, control and optimize thetarget system.The target system of this paper focuses on the Shanghai Ocean threeindustries, the major marine industries of Shanghai. The evaluation indexesinclude the marine economy, employment related to the sea, andenvironmental impact. Firstly, this paper analyzes the development trend of Shanghai marineindustrial structure, including two parts.1. Correlation analysis betweenthree industries of Shanghai marine industry and the Shanghai MarineGross to determine the priority of developing three industries as follows:Shanghai marine tertiary industry is preferred to develop, followed byShanghai marine secondary industry, and finally Shanghai marine primaryindustry.2. Correlation analysis between the main industries of Shanghaimarine industry and the Shanghai Marine Gross to determine the priority ofindustries development. The main industries of Shanghai marine industryinclude marine fisheries, marine power industry, offshore oil industry,marine gas industry, marine shipbuilding industry, marine transportationand coastal tourism. The result of analysis is as follows: The marinetransportation is the leading marine industry in Shanghai, followed bymarine gas industry, marine shipbuilding industry, coastal tourism, finallymarine power industry and offshore oil industry.Secondly, correlate the Shanghai three marine industries with theevaluation indexes including employment related to the sea and theenvironmental impacts. From the perspective of three industries ofShanghai marine industry, the marine tertiary industry is the most related tothe employment, followed by the marine primary industry, finally themarine secondary industry; the marine tertiary industry is the most relatedto the environmental impact, followed by the marine primary industry,finally the marine secondary industry. From the perspective of the mainmarine industry in Shanghai, coastal tourism is the most related to theemployment, followed by marine fisheries, marine transportation, marinegas industry, finally marine power industry, marine shipbuilding industryand offshore oil industry. Offshore oil industry and marine power industryare the most related to environment impact, followed by marine gasindustry, coastal tourism and marine transportation, finally marine fisheriesand marine shipbuilding.Find the associated industries by cluster analysis of the gray model tocalculate the association between the main industries of Shanghai marineindustry. The result of calculation is marine gas industry, marineshipbuilding industry, marine transportation and coastal tourism to beassociated. Marine fisheries, offshore oil industry and marine powerindustry are not associated with each other and another marine industries.To make the decision which industry should be prior to developaccording to the three evaluation indexes by gray decision-making model.The result of the model for the future development of Shanghai marineindustry is as follows: Give the priority to develop Shanghai marine tertiaryindustry, followed by the marine secondary industry, finally the marine primary industry. And, give the priority to develop marine transportationand coastal tourism, followed by marine fisheries, marine gas industry,marine shipbuilding, finally marine power industry and offshore oilindustry.Finally, forecast Shanghai marine gross from2010to2014by GM (1,1)model. If Shanghai marine industry develops as normal, it will not matchthe target of15%annual growth rate planned by Shanghai "TwelfthFive-Year Plan". So, Shanghai marine industry structure must be optimized.This paper gives the recommendations to optimize Shanghai marineindustry structure as follows: Shanghai marine industry should focus on thedevelopment of the leading industries and competitive industries. Continueto deepen the industrial structure adjustment and foster the group of marineindustries. Enhance the development of the marine high-tech industries.And this paper gives the recommendations for the optimization of Shanghaimain marine industries.