Studies On Dynamic Emulaion Of The Synergetic Development Of Ocean Cycle Economics

Currently, with the rapid economic growth and increasing population of China, theconflicts of lack of resources,such as water,land,energy and mineral resources will becomemore and more prominent,the situation of ecological construction and environmentalprotection become increasingly serious.on this situation, developing the circular economyvigorously and establishing the resource-saving society, has become particularly importantand urgent. As a matter closed-loop circulation system, Marine extremely have closerelationship with the land of nature as a whole, and is relatively independent of it.on thedevelopment and utilization of the environment,we need to achieve a win-win strategicobjectives between the sustainable development and economic, marine circular economy ispart of the circular economy, which is a new model to change the traditional mode ofeconomic growth, protect the marine environment, promot the sustainable development ofmarine economy. Following the3R principles of circular economy theory:"reduction,reuse, recycle", and establishing the circulation mechanism, maintain ecological balance,harmonization the organic coordination between human development and marine resources,marine environment. Circular economy has become a trend, and is an inevitable choice ofocean economic development model.This article attempts to use system dynamics simulation model, and from two mainareas:theory and practice to analysis the necessity to develop marine circular economy anddevelopment strategies, in order to find a path of the development of marine circulareconomy.In theory area:firstly, analyzing the research status on cycle economic and systemdynamics both at home and abroad, and leading the application value of the systemdynamics in marine cycle economic area;secondly, analyzing the marine cycle economictheory and system dynamics theory in China,including the concept of defined and the statusof marine economic development in China and its restricting role to the marine resourcesenvironment, System Dynamics and its basic thought and the building steps of the systemdynamics model, which lay the foundation of the marine dynamics model of Recycleeconomy system.In empirical area:firstly, construction the evaluation index system of marine cycle economic system, and select the optimal value of part index system; secondly simulatingthe marine cycle economic with the system dynamics model, the system dynamics modelitself is a model of a half qualitative half quantitative, so on the construction process of themodel, we have the qualitative of description to the marine cycle economic firstly, madethe causal relationship figure of the four subsystem of the resources, environment,economic and social their in marine cycle economic system, and make large scale systemflow diagram of the marine circular economy system.Then select the part of the indexsystem for multiple regression, constructing the formula of the index and apply it in thesystem dynamics simulation model; finally, predict the selected indicators with thedynamics of the system, forecasting the trends of these indicators in the next6years, andprovide guidance for the development of circular economy in China.