Financial Ecological Environment Quality Evaluation Based On The System Dynamics Theory

This thesis tries to evaluate China’s financial ecological environment quality based on system dynamics theory, study the interaction mechanism among the factors which influence the quality evaluation and then look for the most influential factors.Based on the reference for the domestic and foreign research literature, the summary of predecessors’ research on financial ecological issues, the thesis takes financial markets as the breakthrough point and screen out some indicators to construct an index system to evaluate the financial ecological environment. The causal feedback relationships between the variables are analyzed by using the system dynamics theory. With the quantization of the relationships, the system dynamics equation is built and the system dynamics model is constructed to make evaluation of domestic financial ecological environment quality. Then the thesis applies the model to evaluate the domestic financial ecological environment quality and explain the change of financial ecological environment quality in recent years in our country. The sensitivity analysis of the influence factors is made to find the most influential roles of those factors.The conclusion mainly includes:(1) System dynamics theory can be used to study the financial ecological environment problems;(2) The trend of domestic financial ecological environment quality in recent years is obtained, and it is found that the change of domestic financial ecological environment quality in recent years is due to the impact that the indicator variables imposed on each subsystem through the causal feedback relationships, then there is a comprehensive influence on the whole domestic financial ecological environment;(3) The sensitivity analysis shows that the domestic financial environment is more sensitive to six indicators:the rate of non-performing loan, stock index volatility, the rate of settlement of claim, the volume of futures market, the rate of change of the exchange rate and the GDP growth rate.