The Characteristics Of The Climate Change For Nearly60Years In Urumqi (1951～2008)

The author selected Urumqi as the research object of the climate change in the arid area, and collected the daily climate data nearly60years from1951to2008from Urumqi observatory station including the8climate factors:average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, precipitation, average relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, average wind speed and average sunshine hours.According to the materials, this paper did the linear trend analysis, analysis of mutations, correlation analysis and R/S analysis, then drew the following conclusions:By linear trend analysis showed that the annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, annual average minimum temperature showed an upward trend; the annual precipitation showed an increasing trend; the annual average relative humidity, the annual average minimum relative humidity, the annual average wind speed and the annual average sunshine hours showed an decreasing trend.This means that during the nearly60years, the climate of Urumqi showed a strong trend toward the warm and humid direction confirming the hypothesis by Shi et al that the climate of the northwest part of China changing from warm and dry to warm and humid.However the seasonal variation and monthly variation of the climate elements showed the same trend in general. But there are still some differences between the annual, seasonal and monthly variation of the climate change.The mutation analysis showed that the mutation point of the climate change in Urumqi occurred in the1960s and1980s in general. And this two decades of jumping in the climate affected the climate trend furthermost.The correlation analysis showed that the average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature are negatively correlated with the average relative humidity and the average minimum relative humidity;the precipitation is negatively correlated with the average wind speed and the average sunshine hours;however the precipitation is positively correlated with the average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature.R/S analysis showed that the climate of the city of Urumqi will still keep the warm and humid trend in the future.But the8elements have the different persistent in the future, so the change of them will influence the climate change development of Urumqi.